Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Zabotkin predicted the return of the economy to pre-crisis levels in 2025

Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank (CB) Alexei Zabotkin in an interview RBC said the Russian economy could return to 2021 levels “sometime in 2025”. He called the influence of the world economy on the Russian one significant.

“We are still a very open economy. There are restrictions on imports, but the same physical volumes of exports and the prices of our exports are highly dependent on world conditions. And, as we can see, prices for some commodities have declined markedly over the past few months, following the decline in global growth expectations,” the deputy chairman of the Central Bank explained.

According to him, it is “more difficult for the economy to overcome a structural decline in potential than to recover from a cyclical downturn.” “We had a cyclical downturn in 2020. With a very active counter-cyclical policy on the part of the monetary policy (monetary policy) and on the part of the budget, this decrease was fully compensated – even more than compensated – in 2021,” Mr. Zabotkin added.

President Vladimir Putin saidthat Russia’s GDP in 2022 will decrease by about 2.5%. The Ministry of Economy expects a decline in Russia’s GDP in 2022 by 2.9%. Rosstat reported that in the third quarter of the year, Russian GDP decreased by 3.7% in annual terms (the first estimate was 4%) against a decline of 4.1% in the second and growth of 3.5% in the first quarter. In October, the Central Bank presented a forecast that provides for a decline in Russia’s GDP in 2022 by 3-3.5%. In 2024-2025, according to the baseline forecast of the Central Bank, GDP growth is expected by 1.5-2.5%.

Details – in the material “Kommersant” “The economy has ‘bounced off the bottom'”.

Laura Keffer