data on business activity of SMEs show a recovery in the sector in the middle of the year

Data on the business activity of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) indicate a revival in the sector taking place in the middle of the year. The RSBI index (calculated by PSB, Opora Rossii and NAFI based on a survey of 1.8 thousand companies) in June reached its maximum values ​​in the entire history of observations and amounted to 55.3 points. Over the past months, analysts have noted the optimism of small enterprises (53.7 points in May, 54.1 in April, 53.5 in March), while the increase in activity in the sector was hampered by weak sales and a lack of borrowed funds.

Money, whether own or borrowed, remains the main factor in the degree of confidence of SMEs. Actual sales continued to grow in June at 19% of companies (this level is 3 percentage points higher than in May and is the highest since February 2022). 34% of SMEs reported a decline in sales, the lowest since September 2021. Further revenue growth is expected by 28% of companies, reductions – by 15%. The loan component updated its historical high (60.4 points) due to the increased availability of debt financing – satisfied demand for it increased from 25% to 29%, unsatisfied demand decreased to a minimum of 8% (the increase in the Central Bank rate may reverse the dynamics as early as next month).

So far, however, financial success has not translated into an increase in the investment activity of SMEs: the share of companies expanding their business remains unchanged (19%), while the share of those willing to invest has further decreased (25% against 28% in May). The personnel component shows the readiness of SMEs to hire new employees (24% of respondents reported this in May and June, 5% were ready to cut staff), but in reality the plans have not yet materialized — 12% of SMEs hired employees in May and June. This may indicate a shortage of personnel in the sector and the inability of SMEs to compete for personnel with large companies, which hinders their development.

Among the areas of activity of SMEs, production is leading – due to the growth of all components. Services and trade grew on sales and credits. “Structural transformations of the Russian market and reorientation to domestic products give businesses new opportunities for development. In the future, sales are likely to move into an active growth phase for the first time since the beginning of the covid period,” believes Kirill Tikhonov, Vice President of PSB.

Diana Galieva