Column by Natalia Skorlygina about HSR Moscow-Minsk

Transport Minister Vitaly Savelyev said that the Moscow-Petersburg high-speed line (HSR) could be extended to Minsk. This is the second part, he clarified, saying that we need to see “how much it will cost and what it will give us.”

Let’s brush aside the feeling of slight geographic heaving while trying to mentally extend the highway from Moscow to St. Petersburg to Minsk and let’s assume that it will come into being. So far, we note that there is not a single high-speed railway in Russia, although there have been many projects. HSR to Kazan was replaced by HSR to St. Petersburg. There was also a high-speed line to Minsk – it once figured in the plans as part of the fabulous Eurasia high-speed line from Berlin to Beijing, but was not considered in isolation from the Asia-Europe connection. In today’s reality, such a project is apparently conceived as autonomous and valuable in itself.

Leaving aside the search for a technological partner (in other words, the foreign country that will supply us with trains for high-speed lines and technology in addition), the most pressing issue for any high-speed railway has always been the price of a ticket.

In 2020, the passenger traffic on the HSR in the Moscow-Petersburg correspondence was estimated at 16.3 million people for 2030, with the weighted average fare in 2019 prices of 5.13 thousand rubles, or 50% more than the price of Sapsan at that time. But this passenger flow was considered achievable only if the Sapsan and Lastochka were completely switched to high-speed lines and part of the night trains were cancelled. And Vladimir Putin in 2021 stated that in the event of the launch of the high-speed rail, aviation on the Moscow-Petersburg shoulder would cease to exist.

Now Lastochka runs to Minsk in 6 hours and 50 minutes, a ticket in services costs about 5 thousand rubles, and there are no problems with seats in general. Air tickets in economy class will cost about 9.5 thousand rubles in both directions. with a flight duration of 1 hour 35 minutes one way. We do not know what forecasts for the growth of passenger traffic are made for the Moscow-Minsk connection, but even if we assume that it is equal to St. at least 15 thousand rubles. The question arises, what kind of passengers will need a high-speed railway for that kind of money in the presence of “Swallows” and air service.

The head of the Passenger Union, Kirill Yankov, shares doubts that there will be solvent demand for the HSR to Minsk. He notes that even now the traffic is quite high-speed, and it is possible to reduce the travel time to five hours due to the reconstruction of some sections. In addition, although two Lastochkas a day from Moscow to Minsk are in demand, the third train was not put on this route, unlike, for example, from Ivanovo. According to Mr. Yankov, with the maximum estimated frequency of four trains per day, the HSR is not even worth venturing: it will remain an “expensive toy”.