CMASF experts improved investment forecasts in Russia until 2026

Investments in fixed assets in Russia in 2023 will grow by 0.1–0.5% instead of a decline of 2–2.5%, which was expected in December. This conclusion was made by the experts of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF). In 2024, capital investment growth will accelerate to 2.5–3% (compared to 1.3–1.7%), in 2025 to 3.5–3.9% (compared to 2.6– 3%), in 2026 – up to 4-4.3%, follows from the updated forecast of the center. According to analysts, in 2022 investments grew by 3.5% instead of the decline expected amid sanctions pressure. Back in December, experts expected a decline in the indicator by 0.8-0.9%, and in May – a collapse by 24-28%.

The revision of the forecast is associated with good performance in construction, including the commissioning of facilities in new regions, Dmitry Belousov, head of the analysis and forecasting of macroeconomic processes at TsMAKP, explained to Vedomosti. Construction activity, as well as the production of military equipment, will continue to grow this year, which will support capital investments, the expert notes. At the same time, there is a noticeable subsidence in investment in the machinery sector, but with the restoration of imports, investments in the industry will recover, the economist adds.