Chinese trade figures in January-February significantly exceeded expectations
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Chinese trade indicators in January-February significantly exceeded expectations: exports grew year-on-year by 7.1%, to $528 billion, imports by 3.5%, to $402.85 billion (the trade balance ultimately increased by 20.5% ). This is partly a consequence of the low base at the beginning of 2023, but even taking this into account, analysts on average expected exports to grow by 1.9% and imports by 1.5%.
China’s trade turnover with the Russian Federation in January-February increased by 9.3%, to $37 billion, while exports from China to Russia in annual terms increased by 12.5%, to $16.8 billion, Chinese imports from the Russian Federation increased by 6 .7%, to $20.2 billion (the positive balance in favor of the Russian Federation decreased by 5.8%, to $3.4 billion). Compared to the indicators at the end of 2023, the volume of imports decreased noticeably (in October – $8.7 billion, in November – $10.3 billion, in December – $10.7 billion), Russian supplies to China decreased less significantly (in October-December – $11.1–11.2 billion monthly).
The Federal Customs Service and the Bank of Russia have not yet published data on trade in 2024, but from the monitoring of sectoral financial flows of the Central Bank it follows that the volume of receipts in sectors of export demand in February was below the average for the fourth quarter of last year by 12.2% (in January – minus 7.8% versus plus 5.9% in December 2023). The main driver of the decline was crude oil and gas production, which could reflect lower export prices at the end of 2023. The lag between deliveries and receipt of payment for them is usually up to two months, but this group was supported by the production of other vehicles and equipment, as well as the mining of metal ores, the Central Bank indicates. Chinese oil imports in January-February, meanwhile, increased by 5.1% year-on-year.
The growth of Chinese exports also affected the United States: deliveries there increased by 5%, to $73.4 billion, while imports of goods from the United States to China decreased by 9.7%, to $26.1 billion (the balance in favor of China increased by 14.5 %, to $47.29 billion, while the total US trade deficit, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, increased by 5.1% in January, to $67.4 billion). This indirectly indicates high demand in the American economy, which is confirmed by labor market data: 275 thousand jobs were created in February compared to 229 thousand in January. Wage growth, however, is gradually slowing down (0.1% month-on-month and 4.3% year-on-year), and the unemployment rate rose from 3.7% to 3.9%.
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