Chinese Defense Minister begins visit to Russia and Belarus

Chinese Defense Minister and member of the State Council Li Shangfu will visit Russia and Belarus from August 14 to 19, where he will hold talks with the leaders of these countries and speak at the 11th Moscow Conference on International Security, said Wu Qian, director of the China Information Bureau. He noted that Li’s invitation came from the Ministers of Defense of Russia and Belarus, Sergei Shoigu and Viktor Khrenin.

It is noted that in addition to speaking at the conference on August 15, the Chinese defense minister plans to hold meetings with the military leadership of Russia and other countries, as well as the leaders of Belarus. In this country, he plans to visit military units.

The current visit of General Lee to Russia is the second since he received the post of minister in March 2023. He first came in this status on April 16, having then held a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. It is known that they discussed “the state and prospects of bilateral cooperation in the defense sphere, as well as topical issues of global and regional security.” At the same time, Li visited Russian military educational institutions. And on July 3, Li met in Beijing with the Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy, Nikolai Evmenov. At the same time, the Chinese minister fundamentally does not hold full-fledged meetings with his American counterpart Lloyd Austin, since Li has been under US sanctions since 2018 for Beijing’s purchase of 24 Russian Su-35 fighters and S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems.

The annual Moscow Conference on International Security has been hosted by the Russian Ministry of Defense since 2012. In the first year, the conference was held under the title “The Anti-Missile Defense Factor in Forming a New Security Space”, then about 200 politicians, military specialists and experts from 50 countries were invited (including from Europe, USA and Canada). Since 2014, Western diplomats and the military began to refuse to participate in this event. China that year at the Moscow conference was represented by the political commissar of the then-existing Lanzhou Military Region of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Li Changsai, and then, from 2015 to 2019, at the level of defense minister. In 2020, the event was not held due to the coronavirus pandemic, and in 2021-2022. The Minister of Defense of the People’s Republic of China spoke at a military forum in Russia in a video format. In 2023, representatives of 102 states, with the exception of Western countries, were invited to the forum, which will be held in the Patriot Park near Moscow. The program includes issues of global stability in the context of the formation of a multipolar world, cooperation between the defense departments of different countries and military aspects of regional security.

At the same time, the Army-2023 military-technical forum is being held in Kubinka, where on August 14 Shoigu examined the exposition of military equipment at the stands of China, Iran and India. In particular, at the Chinese stand, he was shown unmanned aerial vehicles, anti-aircraft systems HQ-22E and FK-2000.

As the South China Morning Post noted on August 14, the Russian Armed Forces have become a key partner of the PLA in terms of the number of joint military exercises over the past 10 years. Since Xi Jinping came to power in the Communist Party in 2012, China has held 45 military exercises with Russia.

Most likely, Lee will discuss with his Russian colleagues precisely the issue of joint exercises and the possibility of expanding their geography and scale, says the director of the Institute of Asian and African Studies of Moscow State University. Lomonosov Alexei Maslov. In history, there have already been exercises by these countries in the Mediterranean Sea and recent patrols near Alaska, he recalls. For China, issues of ensuring collective security are relevant, given the situation with Taiwan, and the development of bilateral military cooperation with Minsk, says Maslov.

The arrival of the Chinese Minister of Defense to the Moscow Conference on International Security is part of the practice established even before the pandemic, as well as the opportunity to hold regular negotiations with the Russian side, says Vasily Kashin, director of the HSE CCEMI. Last year, China participated in the conference remotely due to covid restrictions. It is quite possible that this time we will see Lee’s meeting with the President of Russia, the expert adds.

Military cooperation between Russia and China is growing, says Kashin. There can be no consequences from the West due to active negotiations with Russia for China, the expert adds. Now it is known about the supply of one of the types of Chinese armored cars and personal protective equipment to the Russian forces, Chinese artillery ammunition was also seen in the zone of the military operation. Most likely, they were supplied from old stocks and not directly, but through Iran or another country, so Beijing has not yet crossed the red line associated with the supply of weapons to Russia, says Kashin. If substantial deliveries of Chinese weapons begin, then this is likely to provoke retaliatory actions from the US and the EU, but they are also unlikely to be radical: the scale of the Chinese economy is too large to easily decide on the imposition of sanctions against China.

An active exchange along the military line is observed near Beijing and with Minsk, says Kashin. For example, Belarus previously transferred technology to China for the production of large multi-axle vehicles that are used as missile launchers. In addition, the Polonaise missile system is being produced in Belarus with Chinese help. During this visit, Lee will be interested to hear the views of the Belarusian side on the Ukrainian conflict. At the same time, Beijing will not get involved in the situation with the aggravation on the Polish-Belarusian border, the expert says, saying that the communication between the Chinese and the Poles can still be called quite constructive.