China’s new defense minister arrives in Moscow

Chinese Defense Minister and State Councilor General Li Shangfu, appointed in March, arrived in Moscow on April 16 for a visit that will last until April 18. Arriving in Moscow, the Chinese minister met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, his spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. General Li Shangfu meets Putin and his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu for the first time. As the press service of the Russian Ministry of Defense reported, it is planned to discuss “the state and prospects of bilateral cooperation in the defense sphere, as well as topical issues of global and regional security.” In addition, Li will visit Russian military educational institutions.

In the West, the visit of the Minister of Defense of the People’s Republic of China caused the expected concern. On April 14, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang tried to dispel it at a joint press conference with his German counterpart Annalena Burbock, saying that Beijing would not supply weapons to either Russia or Ukraine. He assured that the PRC authorities regulate the export of dual-use goods that can be used for both civilian and military purposes. Nevertheless, on April 12, the United States imposed sanctions against the Chinese company China Aerospace Technology Company – as explained in the State Department, for providing satellite images of Ukraine to intermediaries allegedly associated with PMC Wagner.

And at the end of February, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said in an interview with CBS that Washington has information about the supply of non-lethal products by China for the needs of the Russian army in the conflict in Ukraine, as well as reason to believe that Beijing is ready to supply the Russian Federation with weapons and ammunition. Wang Yi, head of the office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee, called these allegations “false” and emphasized that Beijing would never accept “that the United States criticizes or even puts pressure on Sino-Russian relations” (Xinhua quote).

65-year-old General Li, an aerospace engineer by education, was approved as head of the Chinese Ministry of Defense following the results of the parliamentary session on March 12 this year. At the same time, he is only the fourth person in the country’s military hierarchy (after the chairman of the Central Military Council (CMC) Xi Jinping and his two deputies), since the department does not have direct authority to manage the army. From 2003 to 2013, he served as chief of the Chinese Xichang cosmodrome, where he worked for a total of 31 years – from 1978. In 2016, Li became deputy chief of staff of the strategic support troops created in 2015 during the military reform ( responsible for cyberspace, space and other high-tech military industries). In 2017–2022 Headed the Directorate for the Development of Arms of the Central Military Commission. In 2018, the US Department of the Treasury imposed sanctions against this unit and Li personally for military cooperation with Russia, in particular for a deal for Beijing to buy 24 Russian Su-35 fighter jets for $2.5 billion and S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems (SAM) for $1 .9 billion (contracts were signed in 2015 and 2016, respectively).

Vasily Kashin, Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, believes that during Li’s visit, a regular meeting of the Russian-Chinese commission on military-technical cooperation (MTC) will be held, which is usually co-chaired by defense ministers (sometimes from the Chinese side it can be vice-chairman CVS).

MTC with China has never stopped and the current armed conflict in Ukraine cannot stop it, Kashin is sure. Firstly, the expert notes, a significant part of this military-technical cooperation is the transfer of technology to China, which does not affect Russian military capabilities. Secondly, a significant part of the weapons China needs is little used in the NMD, in particular, weapons for the navy.

“The supply of Chinese weapons and military equipment to Russia, most likely, will not be anyway. At the same time, any joint projects will be kept as secret as possible, as was the case in previous years after the adoption of the US law CAATSA (On countering America’s adversaries through sanctions” of 2017 – Vedomosti),” Kashin believes. On the eve of Minister Lee’s arrival in Moscow, on April 14, by order of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, a sudden check of the combat readiness of the Russian Pacific Fleet began. In addition to surface ships and marines based in the Far East, long-range aviation also participates in it – on April 16, Tu-95MS strategic missile carriers and Tu-22M3 tactical bombers were relocated to its operational airfields.

At the same time, the situation around Taiwan has been heating up in recent days. The Joint Sharp Sword military exercise was first conducted by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army from April 8 to 10, following an April 5 meeting in California between ROC President Tsai Ing-wen and U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. During the maneuvers, an imitation of joint high-precision strikes against targets on the island was carried out. On April 11, the largest joint exercise between the Philippines and the United States, Balikatan, began in 30 years, in which more than 17,000 military take part.

The Russian check of troops in the Far East may well be connected with Chinese exercises north of Taiwan, admits Alexander Ermakov, an expert at the Russian Council on Foreign Affairs. It is impossible not to fully take into account the Chinese context when analyzing maneuvers in the Pacific Ocean, he is sure. Russia demonstrates that it is a Pacific power that still retains the appropriate potential, says Dmitry Stefanovich, a researcher at the Center for International Security at the IMEMO RAS. It is possible that during the inspection or immediately after it, a number of joint events with Chinese partners are planned, the expert adds. The global confrontation between the US and China in the Pacific cannot but affect Russia in one way or another, regardless of its desire to be on the sidelines, Stefanovich says. Lee’s visit must have been long planned. It is designed to demonstrate that military-political cooperation between countries is developing, despite the attempts of Western countries to drive a wedge into their relations, the analyst concludes.