China’s exports in July 2023 decreased by 14.5% year-on-year

China’s exports in July 2023 decreased by 14.5% year-on-year, to $281.8 billion, after a decline of 12.4% in June, according to Chinese customs data. Imports also accelerated the fall, falling 12.4% to $201.2 billion, after falling 6.8% in June. By the previous month, the drop in imports was sharper – by 6.3%, while exports decreased by only 1.2%. As a result, the country’s trade surplus decreased by 20.4%, to $80.6 billion. The data indicate not only weakening external demand, but also increased pressure on domestic demand: PMI in the industry, according to Caixin, fell to 49.2 points in July — below the mark of 50 points separating the growth of business activity from the decline.

Trade went negative in almost all directions – exports fell both to the United States (here the figure decreased by 18.6%, to $42.3 billion) and to the EU countries (by 8.9%, to $42.4 billion). At the same time, imports from the USA sank by 4.7% (to $12 billion), from EU countries – by 1.9% (to $23.3 billion). The fall was also noted in trade with the ASEAN countries, with Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea. With Taiwan, turnover fell by almost a quarter. At the same time, a significant imbalance in trade now does not suit the EU countries in the first place. For example, EC Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis called for China to reduce barriers to European exports as part of a strategic dialogue in September against the backdrop of an increase in the trade deficit to €400 billion last year. According to Dombrovskis, trade relations between China and the EU are unbalanced, and the level of openness on the part of the KRN does not match the level of openness on the part of the EU.

Trade with Russia, meanwhile, shows high annual growth rates and at the same time is rapidly balancing: in total, over seven months compared to January-July last year, deliveries to the Russian Federation increased by 73.4%, to $ 62.5 billion, while exports from Russia – by 15 .1% to $71.6 billion. Monthly statistics, however, show a moderate decrease in turnover compared to June: imports decreased from $11.2 billion to $9.2 billion, exports to the Russian Federation, on the contrary, increased from $9.6 billion to $ 10.3 billion. Statistics on China’s oil imports really show a noticeable reduction in imports in July – in tons it fell by 15%. According to the International Energy Agency, Russian oil supplies to China in July fell from 2.4 million to 2.2 million bpd.

Tatyana Edovina