China’s economy will slow down in 2024 – Kommersant
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Economists surveyed Nikkei, predict a slowdown in Chinese economic growth next year. Thus, a group of 25 experts on average predicts China’s GDP growth in 2024 by 4.6% versus 5.2% expected at the end of 2023. The current forecast is higher than in September, when analysts expected the Chinese economy to grow by 4.5% next year. Now, the overwhelming majority of experts surveyed are confident that the authorities will be able to get closer to the target GDP growth of 5% by the end of 2024. As Nikkei notes, despite the problems, the Chinese economy is showing good growth due to the low base effect, since the country was subject to strict quarantine measures related to COVID-19 for most of the year last year.
However, the economy is unlikely to be able to demonstrate the same growth rate, say experts who are concerned about the crisis in the real estate sector. For example, S&P Global Ratings also predicts that the Chinese economy will grow by 4.6% in 2024, but notes that a scenario is possible in which GDP will grow by only 2.9%. And what this indicator ultimately turns out to be depends on the real estate sector, the rating agency notes. Among other risks, experts interviewed by Nikkei note a low level of consumer confidence and the inadequacy or ineffectiveness of measures taken by the authorities to stimulate economic growth.
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