China wins Taiwan elections
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The results of the January 13 presidential and parliamentary elections in Taiwan will be discussed for some time by professionals and amateurs in the analysis of international affairs. But it is already clear that these elections did not lead to events of global significance, but simply opened a new page in the Cold War between Washington and Beijing.
The most important thing is that China has not allowed itself to be drawn into a fratricidal war with its compatriots in Taiwan, which the Americans have been trying hard to achieve since 2018. Then President Trump began to intensively pump the island with weapons and incite the separatists to secede from the Middle Kingdom. The situation became tense with the arrival of each new batch of missiles and aircraft, each visit of a delegation of political figures.
Under Biden, Beijing was already on the verge of a preemptive strike. In August 2022, Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi flew to Taipei. Everyone held their breath in anticipation of either the destruction of the plane of a third party in the American hierarchy, or a landing on the coast of Taiwan. Only the “strategy of patience” inherent to Xi Jinping made it possible to solve the problem using Chinese, and not Western, methods of military-political art. The six-day economic blockade under the pretext of PLA Air Force and Navy exercises became a convincing rehearsal for the actions of the PRC in the event of the declaration of “independence.” The demonstration of a “steel fist in a kid glove” had the expected effect on the Taiwanese, and in municipal elections later that year, the separatist ruling party collected only 20% of the votes, and Tsai Ing-wen resigned as head of the party.
It is not surprising that during the pre-election debates, none of the three presidential candidates raised the issue in this regard. Ruling party candidate Lai Qingde argued that Taiwan was already a de facto independent country from China and therefore he was not going to force the necessary legal procedures. The candidate of the new People’s Party, Ke Wen Zhe, also advocated not secession, but the development of economic and cultural ties with the mainland. Kuomintang Party representative Hou Yui appealed to the current Constitution of the Republic of China (Taiwan). “China is one,” says the oldest political party in China, the Kuomintang, created on the ruins of the Qing Empire in 1912. She defended this patriotic formula for decades in battles with separatist generals, with puppets of the Japanese aggressors, and then with the Red troops. The unity of China is enshrined in the Constitution of the Republic of China, which continued to operate after the Kuomintang fled to Taiwan in 1949.
Thus, even before the end of the elections, it became clear that whatever the outcome, war would not break out either in the foreseeable future or beyond the limits of visibility. After all, Beijing constantly calls the “red line”, a sufficient reason for starting military action, precisely the declaration of sovereignty, and not the intention to secede or even the beginning of preparations for this difficult and slow process. The Taiwanese view their society as democratic, and decisions that go beyond laws and procedures are unlikely to be supported by the political community, business community or military.
Even the success of the separatist Democratic Progressive Party candidate Lai Qingde cannot change this reality. He collected 40% of the vote, slightly ahead of the Kuomintang Party candidate Hou Yui (33.4%) and the unexpectedly successful founder and leader of the People’s Party, Ke Wen Zhe (26%). Even this modest success was immediately canceled out by the success of the opposition. In the parliamentary elections held simultaneously, the Kuomintang Party and the People’s Party, which advocated maintaining the status quo and gradually improving relations with the PRC, jointly won almost two-thirds of the votes. Of the 113 seats in parliament, the Kuomintang has 52, the Democratic Progressive Party has 51, and the People’s Party has 8. Independent candidates have won two more seats. Even the slow progress towards legal formalization of Taiwan’s “independence” from China, which began during Tsai Ing-wen’s eight-year reign, will encounter stiff resistance from the other two parties, which, if not gravitating toward reunification with the motherland, are clearly drawn to “family” ties.
Voters of these two parties know that Greater China is the island’s top trading partner—$320 billion in 2022. Investments by Taiwanese businesses on the mainland amount to two hundred billion. Of the 23.5 million residents of Taiwan, 1,200,000 people are permanently in the PRC – owners and managers of enterprises, engineers and teachers, doctors and artists. Cutting such an umbilical cord, especially for an adult child, would be painful and deadly.
The Taiwanese military also has its own reasons to doubt the advisability of declaring sovereignty. Using the example of their Ukrainian colleagues, they were convinced of the unacceptability of the price that they would have to pay in a duel with numerous trained and motivated compatriots from the other side of the Taiwan Strait. No wonder retired generals often visit the mainland…
However, the separatists also have a solid electorate. Mostly young people give them their votes. This is due to a lack of understanding of the realities of the island’s economy, as well as the popular stereotype of “Taiwanese identity.” The idea of the “specialness” and even “superiority” of the Taiwanese has existed since the chaos of the “Great Leap Forward” and the “Cultural Revolution” in the PRC. It strengthened during the reign of Deng Xiaoping, who copied the important achievements of the economic and social structure of Chiang Kai-shek’s regime. With the beginning of the “reform and opening up policy,” Taiwanese, as “rich relatives,” returned to their home villages and cities, bringing investments and market economy techniques. Taiwanese singers, film actors and fashion designers have long been trendsetters and youth idols. Words from the everyday life of the island’s inhabitants actively penetrated the language of mainland Chinese.
With the outbreak of the Cold War against China in 2018, the indoctrination into the superiority of “Taiwanese identity” and hostility towards fellow countrymen has sharply increased. The Tsai Ing-wen regime embarked on a policy of “desinization,” weakening cultural and even linguistic ties with mainland China. The sentiment of “Taiwanese identity” will be fueled by the Lai Qingde government and will remain a “ticking time bomb” no matter what happens on the island.
How will events develop before and after May of this year, when Lai Qingde officially replaces Tsai Ing-wen as “president” of the Republic of China? Both Beijing and Taipei would be quite happy with the status quo—preservation of both economic relations and military-political tension without approaching the “red line.” The Taiwanese will continue their cozy existence as global suppliers of microelectronics and bearers of “special identity.” The Chinese will gain more peacetime to achieve the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” by 2049. By then, the benefits of “socialism with Chinese characteristics” may become so convincing that they will outweigh “Taiwanese identity” and reunification will occur completely painlessly.
China, with its thousand-year history and current schedule until the middle of the century, can afford to play for a long time. But America cannot move at this pace. It needs to be able to stop or at least slow down the progress of the Celestial Empire before it becomes completely dilapidated in the foreseeable future. The main means in recent years has been precisely the hope of provoking Beijing into a preemptive strike on Taiwan. The results of the past elections and the new balance of power in parliament have greatly weakened these hopes. Even after taking the presidency in May, Lai Qingde will not be able to push through a decision on the secession of Taiwan, which would be the trigger for a “counter-offensive” against the separatists.
Given the shortage of historical time and the need to fight on several fronts at once, Washington may once again lose clients who have not met their expectations. This was the case in 1949, when Chiang Kai-shek and his team stopped providing assistance in the final stages of the civil war with the Communists. This was the case in 1971, when the Americans did not prevent Beijing diplomats from taking seats in the UN and its Security Council instead of the Taiwanese. This was the case in 1978, when diplomatic relations with Taipei were unexpectedly and humiliatingly severed in order to achieve rapprochement with Beijing, which promised to join the fight against the Soviet Union.
In Washington, there is a growing mood of “fatigue” not only from Ukraine, but also from Taiwan. Financial, political and military investments in them turn out to be ineffective. The time to “lock in losses” may come with the arrival of a new administration in the White House.
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China wins Taiwan elections
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