Chief European diplomat will try to convince China of EU independence

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell arrived in China on October 12 for a three-day visit. There he will take part in the 12th round of the Sino-European Strategic Dialogue, where his counterpart will be Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Borrell himself wrote on Twitter that his visit is important for discussing both relations between the EU and China, as well as key regional and global issues.

Senior European sources told Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post SCMP that there is “no doubt” that the Hamas-Israel clash will be raised, despite its absence from the official agenda. Representatives of the Chinese Foreign Ministry have so far supported the restoration of the negotiation process between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, citing the principle of “two states for two peoples.” Chinese President Xi Jinping has not yet commented on the aggravation in the Middle East. The EU strongly condemned the actions of Hamas.

Borrell was able to reach China in 2023 only on his third attempt. In April, he did not travel due to a positive test result for COVID-19, and in July, Beijing itself canceled scheduled events, likely due to proceedings with the country’s then-resigned former Foreign Minister Qin Gang.

On the first day of his visit, Borrell met with businessmen and Chinese scientists at the Shanghai Academy of International Studies, which is part of the Chinese Foreign Ministry. On October 13, he will fly to Beijing, where he will hold talks with Wang Yi and also give a speech at Peking University. The current visit of the chief European diplomat should be the final one before the second visit of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to China in a year, writes Bloomberg. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin recalled at a briefing that 2023 marks the 20th anniversary of the establishment of the comprehensive strategic partnership between China and the EU.

In an interview with SCMP on the eve of his flight to China, Borrell called on the Chinese to stop viewing relations with the EU through the prism of their rivalry with the United States. “My first task is to confirm to my Chinese interlocutors that Europe takes China seriously and has no hidden agenda to undermine its rise. At the same time, we expect China to take us more seriously and stop looking at us through the prism of its relations with other countries. Our assessment and behavior are determined by our own interests,” the European official assured.

Moreover, Borrell is confident that “the war in Ukraine has turned us [Евросоюз] from an economic power to a geopolitical power, and we take our strategic responsibilities very seriously.” At the same time, the EU representative again expressed dissatisfaction with the neutral position of the PRC in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. “Being neutral in this case is like watching from the side as a fox enters the henhouse and waiting for the consequences,” Borrell used this metaphor.

Finally, the diplomat again expressed concern about the trade imbalance in relations with China (it reached 365 billion euros in favor of China in 2022). In his opinion, the huge trade deficit cannot simply be the result of China winning the competition. Brussels explains this state of affairs by the “discriminatory policy” of the PRC: Borrell even threatened to leave European companies from the Chinese market if there are no changes. Previously, Beijing called in response to such accusations only to lift existing export restrictions.

At the same time, a Bloomberg article claims that Brussels does not want to start a trade war with a country whose trade turnover in 2022 amounted to almost $900 billion.

But, despite the active dialogue, the EU continues to implement not the most friendly policies. Thus, on October 10, the Financial Times (FT) newspaper reported that the EU was ready to open a second anti-subsidy case against China due to possible preferences that its government provides to steel producers. According to the publication, this request to the Europeans was made from Washington. Moreover, at a joint summit, the US and EU may also announce the conclusion of a global agreement on sustainable steel and aluminum production (GSA), which will limit the export of Chinese metals.

Beijing’s reaction to this information came only on the first day of Borrell’s visit: Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesman He Yadong said that China resolutely opposes the abuse of measures to support trade through protectionism. Prior to this, on October 4, the EU officially launched a similar investigation into Chinese battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs). Moreover, Brussels is considering the possibility of conducting an investigation against Chinese wind generators, which could also lead to the introduction of new duties.

According to Alicia Bachulskaya, a researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations, in Beijing both sides will try to understand each other’s position. In her opinion, “the EU wants to convey where its red lines are.” During Borrell’s visit, the general course of trade and economic cooperation will be discussed, taking into account the EU’s claims in trade, noted St. Petersburg State University professor Yana Leksyutina. Borrell’s dissatisfaction with the Chinese position on Ukraine will not lead to changes in China’s mood, she believes.

The task of European diplomacy now is to ensure that the conflict between the United States and China has minimal impact on Beijing’s relations with Brussels, says Artem Sokolov, a researcher at the Center for European Studies at MGIMO. As a result of the policies of the West, economic interaction with it has ceased to look like an unconditional benefit that needs to be maintained and expanded, the expert noted.

In Europe, however, there is an understanding that a sharp break with China cannot be allowed, as was previously the case with Russia, Sokolov believes. “The consequences of such a gap would be serious, and Borrell wants to insure Brussels against a possible crisis,” says the scientist. Of course, the visit will not be complete without discussion of Russian-Chinese relations and criticism of Beijing for its lack of censure of Moscow. But if Borrell’s mission is focused on this criticism, Sokolov concludes, one cannot believe in its success.

In China, in fact, they still harbor hopes that the restoration of normal relations with the EU is possible, Leksyutina notes. The European direction for China is important in the context of the difficult geopolitical situation and the impossibility of normalizing relations with the United States, bringing them to the “pre-Trump” level. In the case of the EU, the expert adds, there is scope for restoring relations, and now the focus of all Chinese diplomacy is aimed at preventing their degradation due to Washington’s pressure on Brussels.