cheapening fuel returned the EU foreign trade surplus
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The trade balance of the European Union in the second quarter of 2023 was formed with a slight surplus, according to the latest data from Eurostat. The deficit that had been recorded in the previous six quarters was replaced by a positive trade balance of €1 billion. The reason for the change in trade dynamics is the decline in energy prices, mainly oil, which began in the second half of 2022 and continued into 2023 (see “Kommersant” dated July 20). In the second quarter compared with the first, the cost of imported energy resources decreased by 15.6%, raw materials – by 10.9%. It should be noted that the decline in fuel prices makes a significant contribution to the slowdown in inflation in the EU: for example, largely due to this, price growth slowed down to 6.1% in July after 6.4% in June (see “Kommersant” dated August 17).
From April to June 2023, the value of exports from the countries of the European Union, according to Eurostat data, fell by 2%. A decrease in the cost of deliveries to foreign markets was recorded in all sectors, except for trade in machinery, equipment and transport (plus 2.5% qoq). The export deliveries of energy carriers (-22.5%) and raw materials (-9.3%) decreased most seriously in monetary terms.
In the second quarter of 2023, the surplus of foreign trade in food, beverages and tobacco amounted to €15.6 billion, in chemical products – €48.5 billion, in vehicles, machinery and equipment – €52.4 billion (the trade surplus of the latter category of goods is growing for the third quarter in a row, remind Eurostat, but has not yet reached the maximum recorded in 2019 – € 60.7 billion). Imports of energy resources in the second quarter exceeded exports by €100 billion, in the first quarter by €115.3 billion.
Recall that in the third quarter of 2022, due to high energy prices, the EU trade balance developed with a deficit of €155 billion (the maximum since 2019). According to the results of the fourth quarter, due to lower fuel prices, the deficit almost halved, to €87 billion. Then, the volume of energy imports from Russia to the European Union decreased significantly — by €16.6 billion quarter on quarter. At the end of 2022, the EU trade balance was formed with a record deficit of €432 billion for the entire period of observation, in the previous ten years, the balance of foreign trade in EU goods was only positive (see “Kommersant” dated April 4).
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