Changes awaiting family mortgages: they want to link the rate to the number of children

The Ministry of Finance was proposed to reduce the rate under the family mortgage program by 1% when adding to the family. The authorities want to reduce the financial burden of servicing a preferential housing loan from 6% to 5% upon the birth of a second child and to 4% upon the appearance of a third and subsequent children in the family. Experts told MK whether this initiative will help support demographics and the real estate market, what are the disadvantages of this proposal and what the authorities need to do to achieve the goals of the program.

Let us remember that preferential family mortgages appeared on the market six years ago. According to its terms, families in which their first child and subsequent children were born since January 1, 2018 can obtain a housing loan at 6% per annum. The authorities expect that about 240 thousand families will take advantage of this program in 2023-2024. Among the regions where preferential family mortgages are most popular are Moscow and the Moscow region, Krasnodar Territory, St. Petersburg and the Tyumen Region.

This program was supplemented and expanded several times, and at the end of February 2024, President Putin, in his message to the Federal Assembly, announced that it would be extended for another six years, until 2030. And now, in the corridors of power, a proposal has been born to reduce the rate on family mortgages from 6% to 5% upon the birth of a second child, and to 4% upon the birth of a third and subsequent children. The benefit will be available only for new loans under the state program. The initiative will soon be considered at a meeting of the working group at the Ministry of Finance, which is to discuss measures to reduce the impact of preferential programs on the mortgage market. The experts interviewed, although they supported the authorities’ initiative, also pointed out its weaknesses: reducing the cost of mortgages by 1% to stimulate demographics will be clearly insufficient, and if the state really wants to help large families, then it is more important to limit the rise in prices per square meter.

Zhanna Belyankina, Sales Director at Dogma:

“This is a good initiative that can provide targeted support to families. This measure may influence families’ decision to purchase an apartment with a larger area. For example, when a family with one child, choosing an apartment, would like to purchase housing with a reserve, because they are planning to have a second child in the future, but cannot afford it due to high monthly payments. In this case, one could think about schemes where the developer subsidizes the rate by 1-2% for a certain period, and when the family has a planned child, the rate will be reduced at the expense of the state. Such mutual support will lead to the fact that the family will be able to afford a larger apartment and will not be limited to the birth of one child due to a lack of housing.

In addition, it would be effective to think through some kind of average support for families with children in cities with a population of over a million. In Moscow, the Moscow region, St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region, a limit of 12 million rubles on a family mortgage is enough to buy a two-room home, but in other cities there is a limit of 6 million rubles – with this money in cities with a population of over a million you can only buy a studio or one-room apartment apartment. In order for a family with children to be able to afford at least a two-room apartment, in my opinion, we need to think about increasing this limit in large cities.”

Oleg Repchenko, head of the Analytical Center “Real Estate Market Indicators”:

“The initiative is clear – to stimulate the birth rate, and not just one child, but several. Such problems were initially intended to be solved by family mortgages—to correct the demographic situation. But 1% does not change the situation significantly; additional savings with such a reduction in the rate will not be noticeable for the family and is unlikely to become an incentive to replenish it. A reduction in the rate for the birth of a second and subsequent children can only be of a psychological nature.

Paradoxical as it may seem, despite support from the state, families today still cannot buy an apartment of a comfortable size. When the family mortgage first appeared on the market, it was enough for a good “kopeck piece”, and sometimes even for a small “three ruble”. And today, both in the capital’s agglomerations and in the regions, a family mortgage is enough, at best, for a one-room apartment, or even a studio, due to the greatly increased prices in the last three years. And this in no way correlates with the idea of ​​increasing the birth rate, because it is impossible for families even with two children to live in such apartments. It turns out that the issue is not the rate, but the greatly inflated housing prices, which do not allow families, especially those with several children, to purchase an apartment of normal size.

Moreover, preferential mortgage programs provoked a sharp increase in the share of small-sized apartments in the supply from developers, so that families could “fit” into the family mortgage limits. Today, sometimes up to half of the supply on the market of new buildings in Moscow are “one-room apartments” and studios, that is, in fact, these are apartments for singles or young couples without children. And the authorities should think about how to force developers to reduce prices and build apartments of normal sizes.

For example, extend the family mortgage only to apartments with an area of ​​50 square meters. meters or more. Such a restriction will force developers to build not only business class houses and higher, but also economy and comfort houses with a lower cost per meter, so that apartments with an area of ​​50 square meters. meters and more fit into the family mortgage limits.”

Alexey Novikov, director of the mortgage lending department at Est-a-Tet:

“This initiative would definitely have a positive impact on customer demand. Tying the mortgage rate to the number of children fits into the government’s agenda to improve demographic indicators and, accordingly, support families. Family mortgages are already popular here: they account for about 37% of all mortgage sales. Such changes will encourage our customers to make purchasing decisions now using this mortgage product.

The proposed mortgage option will not replace the preferential program that was launched in 2020, since there are no special restrictions on who could take advantage of this product. Family mortgages are aimed at a certain category of the population. Accordingly, those clients who fell under the requirements of a family mortgage will use this new product.

The product in question is unlikely to affect the increase in cost per square meter, since prices are still growing systematically and do not directly depend on mortgage programs. They are influenced by demand: accordingly, if it increases, developers can further adjust the cost. Taking into account the current situation, when all companies are underfulfilling the plan and sales are reduced, the launch of this product will not cause a sharp increase in prices, everything will be quite stable.”

Tatyana Boeva, head of the mortgage lending department of Granel Group of Companies:

“The measure is logical; if implemented, the program will be very popular among Russians. The decision will seriously support purchasing activity in the new buildings market during a period of high key rates and fluctuations in demand. The construction industry will gain additional sustainability. This means that developers will be able to look into the future with more confidence and actively prepare new projects. The initiative will create conditions for maintaining and increasing the volume of housing construction. According to our estimates, this will result in demand growth of up to 15%.

What’s very important is that the initiative fully complies with the requirements of the regulator, which has repeatedly stated that all benefits must be targeted.”