Central Bank: GDP growth is still moving towards the upper level of the forecast

Data on the Russian economy for the first quarter and April show that the country’s GDP growth is still moving towards the upper half of the Bank of Russia’s forecast (0.5-2%). Kirill Tremasov, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Central Bank, told about this.

“Based on what we have for the first quarter and preliminary for the second quarter, we are now moving rather closer to the upper half of this range,” leads his words to RIA Novosti.

At the same time, Tremasov stressed that data for the second quarter is only available for April. Polls of the Central Bank show, he pointed out, that the level of business activity remains high. “Most likely, the second quarter will be characterized by high growth rates,” he summed up.

In April, Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov announced that the agency had improved its forecast for the Russian economy in 2023 from a decline of 0.8% (in the September forecast) to growth of 1.2%. Later, the Central Bank also improved the forecast for the dynamics of Russian GDP: the regulator now expects the economy to grow by 0.5-2% in 2023, although back in February it expected a decline. Economists polled by the regulator at the end of May predict the growth of the Russian economy by 0.8% for the year.

Chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina SPIEF Also spokethat the Russian economy at the end of this year will show growth, most likely closer to the upper level of the forecast of the Central Bank. At the same time, next year it will fully return to pre-crisis levels. Business activity in April, according to the Central Bank, increased in many basic sectors of the economy – in manufacturing, construction, retail, services and catering. The business climate indicator calculated by the Central Bank on the basis of monitoring enterprises, although it decreased in May, remains near ten-year highs.