By the end of the year, the mood of small and medium-sized businesses stabilized

By the end of the year, the sentiment of small and medium-sized businesses stabilized: since August, the RSBI index fluctuated at the level of 54–55 points, amounting to 54.3 points in December (the index is calculated by PSB, Opora Rossii and NAFI based on a survey of 1.8 thousand companies) . Maintaining position in the growth zone is explained by the willingness of SMEs to increase business investment and increase hiring – these plans are supported by debt financing, although SME sales expectations have become worse in 2023.

According to the study, business’s assessment of actual sales in December remained unchanged, but only 20% of entrepreneurs expect their growth, and 33% assess the prospects negatively – after the New Year holidays, consumer activity traditionally declines. At the same time, survey data indicate a high level of access to lending for SMEs in December: the share of loan approvals was 15% (a two-year maximum), those with existing loans – 16%, the rate of refusals remained at a historical low – 7%. As a result, the total satisfied demand reached its maximum. The growth of the loan portfolio in December at a high key rate can be explained by the fact that banks tried to choose limits for government-subsidized lending programs.

Senior Vice President of PSB Kirill Tikhonov explains the growth of the SME loan portfolio with the seasonal need to replenish working capital to complete settlements with suppliers and advanced purchases to minimize costs in 2024 against the backdrop of possible inflationary price adjustments. Since business activity is based on leverage, PSB notes the role of preferential programs. So far, the index records an increase in the investment activity of SMEs: 24% of respondents increased investments in December, 29% plan to increase investments in the near future. For these purposes, SMEs plan to increase hiring (30% of respondents). At the end of 2023, small companies tried to close personnel issues, making decisions about both hiring employees (15%) and firing them (21%).

In terms of industry, enterprises in the manufacturing sector have a strong position – they actively attracted loans (most preferential lending programs are available to industry) and expanded their business. In the trade sector, business activity indicators declined due to expectations of a decline in sales.

Diana Galieva