Bloomberg: the Russian economy may face a recession for 10 years

Russia could face a longer and deeper economic recession due to US and European sanctions, jeopardizing industries that the country has relied on for years for its economy. Writes about it Bloomberg with reference to an internal report of the Russian government.

Two of the three scenarios presented in the report show that the economic downturn in Russia will accelerate next year, and the economy will return to the level before the start of the military special operation in Ukraine only at the end of the decade or later.

The “inertial” scenario assumes that next year the economy will reach its maximum decline – 8.3% below the level of 2021. According to the “stress” scenario, in 2024 the drop will be 11.9% compared to 2023.

All scenarios take into account the increased pressure of sanctions, and more countries are likely to join them, writes Bloomberg. The government report said that Europe’s abrupt withdrawal from Russian oil and gas could hurt the Kremlin’s ability to feed its own market.

In addition to the restrictions themselves, which cover about a quarter of Russia’s imports and exports, the report refers to a technical “blockade” that “affects almost all modes of transport.” We are talking about limiting the supply of equipment and parts for the production of cars to Russia.

The report also noted the impact on the economy of the shortage of specialists. According to the authors of the document, by 2025 up to 200 thousand IT specialists may leave the country, which is the first official forecast of an increase in the “brain drain”.

Not only Russia is in a state of economic crisis, but also countries that impose sanctions against it. For example, the Bundesbank warnedthat inflation in Germany could reach “double digits” in autumn. Inflation in Britain for the first time in 40 years exceeded ten%. Experts interviewed by Bloomberg spokethat recession risk in the eurozone has risen to its highest level since November 2020.

More about this – in the material “Kommersant” “Eurozone remains in the black”.

Daria Erozbek