Blinken travels to Israel to discuss humanitarian pause and hostages in Gaza

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on November 3 went on his third tour related to the Middle East conflict since the beginning of the war between Hamas and Israel. The first on his route is Israel and a meeting with its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The Secretary of State plans to discuss with him the humanitarian aspects of the IDF military operation in the Gaza Strip. It has been accompanied by intense bombing, with at least 9,227 civilians already killed in the Palestinian enclave by the time Blinken’s tour began.

Then the US Secretary of State should visit Jordan. Amman traditionally maintains normal relations with Israel, but on November 1 – only the third week of the war – after the intensity of fighting in Gaza intensified, it recalled its ambassador from Tel Aviv.

“[Госсекретарь обсудит] working to ensure the immediate release of hostages, increasing the pace and volume of humanitarian assistance flowing into Gaza for distribution to Palestinian civilians, and preventing the conflict from spreading,” the US diplomatic service noted. At the same time, as The New York Times writes, citing sources in the White House, Blinken is going to discuss organizing “humanitarian pauses” in Gaza. Previously, US President Joe Biden also spoke about the need for temporary ceasefires for humanitarian purposes.

“I think we need a break. A pause means time to release prisoners,” Biden said at a November 2 campaign event in Minnesota. Blinken said before the flight that “the United States is committed to doing everything possible to protect civilians.”

The State Department noted that in Tel Aviv, the Secretary of State will also “affirm support for Israel’s right to self-defense against terrorism,” but “in accordance with international humanitarian law.” Blinken will discuss with Netanyahu efforts to protect US citizens in Israel, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, where hostages, including foreign nationals, were taken away by Hamas on October 7-8.

Hamas on November 3 announced its “readiness to compromise” on the people it holds (about 249 people in total), “both civilian and military.” But subject to the release of Palestinians held in Israeli prisons (about 5,000, according to a July UN report). The US is dealing with the hostage issue through Qatar.

A Hamas delegation already went to Moscow to discuss this problem at the Foreign Ministry level on October 26 (there are Russians with dual citizenship among the hostages). This caused an Israeli protest, accusations of “supporting terrorism” and a call to “expel” Hamas representatives from Moscow.

From a political point of view, at a minimum, the organization of humanitarian pauses by Israel after requests from the United States cannot be ruled out, especially in the context of the release of hostages, although before this Tel Aviv has repeatedly stated the unacceptability of ceasefires, says Lyudmila Samarskaya, a junior researcher at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at IMEMO RAS. She notes that Israel still needs to demonstrate the ability to respond forcefully to threats from both a domestic and regional perspective.

“Therefore, the likelihood that the US position will stop the operation completely is low. At the same time, its format can most likely be discussed, as well as the humanitarian component,” says Samarskaya.

An additional subject for discussion besides the humanitarian pause in Gaza, according to Samarskaya, could probably be the post-war future of the Gaza Strip, which still remains extremely uncertain. Bloomberg previously reported that the United States and Israel are discussing the possibility of creating an interim government in the sector with the support of the UN and the participation of Arab states. The Wall Street Journal wrote on November 2, citing sources, that Blinken was negotiating this with Arab countries, but publicly the secretary of state only said that he allowed the scenario of participation of “certain countries and organizations”, since the return of the status quo with Hamas to Gaza is impossible.

At the same time, as Al Arabiya reported on November 2, citing sources, at least Egypt rejected the proposal for international and Israeli governance of the Gaza Strip in the future (this was not officially confirmed). Arriving in Tel Aviv, Blinken assured that the Israelis do not intend to occupy the Gaza Strip and take responsibility for the situation there after the end of the conflict.

“It is still completely unclear who will be involved in the post-war organization, management and restoration of Gaza. Israel does not need this, neighboring Arab countries – in this format, apparently, too, the PNA (Palestinian National Authority, which controls the West Bank – Vedomosti) may not be able to cope without Israel’s help, and it is difficult for the UN there now as a real manager strength to imagine,” says Samarskaya.

In Jordan, Blinken is set to highlight the US commitment to “protecting civilian life and facilitating increased and sustained delivery of life-saving humanitarian assistance to civilians in the Gaza Strip.” The Secretary of State will also note that Palestinians should not be “forcibly displaced outside of Gaza.”

But on October 31, the Netanyahu administration confirmed that Israeli intelligence had prepared a plan to evict the entire population of the Gaza Strip to Egypt, the Middle East and even Canada, eliminating the possibility of their return. The Prime Minister’s Office stated that there were no substantive discussions on such options, and Egypt reiterated its opposition to “solving regional problems at its expense.”

Both Israel and Jordan since the 1960s. are close partners of the United States in the Middle East. Blinken spokesman Matthew Miller said at a briefing about the start of the tour that the secretary of state wants to “start a conversation with Israel and Jordan about ending the conflict in Gaza,” thus renewing contacts between Tel Aviv and Amman.

In addition, in Amman, Blinken will discuss the conflict itself and the possibility of its resolution – “urgent mechanisms to end violence, calm rhetoric, and reduce regional tension.” “[Госсекретарь] “will reaffirm the United States’ commitment to working with partners to create the conditions necessary for lasting and sustainable peace in the Middle East, including the creation of a Palestinian state,” the State Department said in a statement. The need to create a Palestinian state in accordance with UN resolutions has been repeatedly stated since the beginning of the conflict by Russian President Vladimir Putin and other senior Russian officials.

The United States does not want to completely spoil relations with the Arabs; it is forced and must demonstrate to them attempts to minimize the suffering of civilians in Gaza, so as not to be in their eyes accomplices in the excesses authored by the IDF, says Kirill Semenov, an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council. It is quite possible that, despite official statements, Israel may also need a respite for purely military purposes of regrouping, and the “humanitarian pause” will be expressed in the bombing of specific areas, and not the entire territory of the enclave, Semyonov believes.

“For example, in the area of ​​the conditional Rafah checkpoint on the border with Egypt, the only route for the evacuation of civilians and the delivery of humanitarian aid, they will not bomb, but in the rest they will continue. This is what a “humanitarian pause” might look like, the expert believes.