Bitcoin is full of rumors – Kommersant
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Investor optimism last week raised cryptocurrency prices by 6–16%. The speculative play against the backdrop of expectations for the registration of spot ETFs for Bitcoin raised the rate of the leading currency to the level of $35 thousand. The quotes were also supported by the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. However, experts do not yet expect a continuation of the significant growth of the rate, postponing it to next year.
According to Coinmarketcap.com, leading cryptocurrencies increased in price by 6-16% over the week. Over the weekend, the Bitcoin rate consolidated above $34 thousand, that is, it actually returned to the values of May 2022. The leading virtual currency was also among the leaders in growth, adding more than 15% over the week, and its capitalization reached $668 billion. The cost of the second most popular cryptocurrency – ether – approached $1.8 thousand, that is, it is near the maximum levels since August of this year. Ethereum capitalization amounted to $215 billion.
An active game to increase the rate of cryptocurrencies, primarily Bitcoin, began in mid-October.
Analysts attribute the renewed interest in the market to expectations of the emergence of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
As the founder of Cross Finance, Alexander Mamasidikov, notes, the trigger was a rumor that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the launch of a Bitcoin ETF from the investment company BlackRock. Almost immediately the rumor was refuted, but the crypto market has already received an impetus for growth. At the same time, as BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov notes, approval of the application to launch spot Bitcoin ETFs is currently one of the most important factors for the cryptocurrency market. It will significantly increase the attractiveness of the sector for investors, and in this way the market will be able to attract additional liquidity, the expert explains.
As Roman Nekrasov, co-founder of the ENCRY Foundation, notes, the impulse that was born from rumors and continued to operate thanks to investor optimism pushed the Bitcoin rate to $35 thousand, but optimism alone was not enough to launch a powerful wave of a new bullish cycle. At the same time, the head of InDeFi Smart Bank, Sergei Mendeleev, points out that the sharp increase was “literally a couple of candles, which may well be a major manipulation in the “thin” market.”
At the same time, the growing conflict in the Middle East also supported crypto bulls.
As Mr. Mamasidikov notes, this geopolitical factor also influenced the price of gold (see “Kommersant” dated October 26) – in conditions of instability, investors transfer capital to “safe havens”, and Bitcoin is seen as a digital analogue of gold. According to Investing.com, last Friday the price of the precious metal on the spot market exceeded $2 thousand per troy ounce.
However, this does not yet look like the beginning of a new bull cycle, analysts say. According to Alexander Mamasidikov, this is hampered by regulatory uncertainty, primarily associated with the policy of tightening regulation of crypto exchanges and stablecoin issuers, which is observed in the United States. Sergei Mendeleev draws attention to the fact that recently the bitcoin rate “has become untied from stock indices and has begun to repeat the movements of a protective asset again,” and this situation can become “an independent factor in the growth of the value of the asset.”
As Roman Nekrasov points out, further growth requires additional incentives: the real launch of a Bitcoin ETF, an even greater increase in geopolitical tensions, or any change in inflation risks.
Their increase, according to Mr. Nekrasov, will attract investments from those players who are willing to take risks in order to preserve the value of assets in the investment portfolio. And a decrease in inflation risks “will entail an easing of the Fed’s monetary policy and a flow of capital from treasury securities to the riskier stock market – and the cryptocurrency market,” Mr. Nekrasov believes.
In the meantime, experts are postponing a significant recovery in the cryptocurrency market to next year. And also in connection with the expected halving in the Bitcoin network in the fall of 2024. As Mr. Nekrasov notes, it is usually associated with an increase in the cryptocurrency rate, which traditionally begins several months before the halving.
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