Big May escalation: how Kyiv will come back to haunt the explosions over the Kremlin

If this is not the intersection of “red lines”, then no such “red lines” simply exist in nature. “Tonight, the Kiev regime attempted to strike with unmanned aerial vehicles on the Kremlin residence of the President of the Russian Federation” – these lines from the official statement of the press service of the President of the Russian Federation a day ago would have been perceived as something completely unimaginable and even fantastic. But this is the reality in which we all now live and in which we all have to live in the future.

As a professional actor, Vladimir Zelensky has always understood the value of special effects very well. Therefore, it must be admitted: on the night of the second to the third of May, he really succeeded.

But life, as even film workers know well, does not consist of special effects alone. And military campaigns are not won by special effects either.

The key question of today is the following: what next? How and with what will Vladimir Putin respond to the attack on his main residence, the main symbol of Russian power, but what is the power of all of Russia?

The Kremlin’s official statement says this very sparingly: “The Russian side reserves the right to take retaliatory measures where and when it sees fit.”

Stinginess is usually considered a very negative quality. But in this case, verbal “stinginess” is fully justified. It is clear that it is impossible not to answer this. It is also clear that the “response” is bound to follow. Putin is one of those world political leaders who “always pay their debts.”

Finally, the following is clear. Any significant Russian response will have significant consequences. And these “significant consequences” will also have their own no less significant consequences.

Are we at some very important point in the Ukrainian conflict — no less important than, for example, February 24, 2022? Maybe.

I will quote the message of the Kremlin press service again: “We regard these actions as a planned terrorist act and an attempt on the President, carried out on the eve of Victory Day, the May 9th Parade, at which the presence of foreign guests is also planned.”

May 9 parade is within easy reach. It would be strange if by the time of the parade the attack on him would have remained unanswered. But is it really important or, moreover, the most important military-strategic decisions should be timed to coincide with the “red days of the calendar”?

I will not utter platitudes like, for example, this: “Revenge is a dish that is best served cold.” The point here, of course, is not at all in revenge. The point here is that in conflicts of this level, those who make decisions not under the influence of emotions, but on the basis of a sober and cold calculation, are in a more advantageous position. In May 2023, the Russian authorities definitely have something to weigh.

The drone attack on the Kremlin is, of course, the loudest propaganda step of official Kyiv. But just as important is the context. And the context is that against the backdrop of the absence of the widely publicized and long-awaited “counteroffensive” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Ukraine is now actively attacking the “old” territory of Russia using the tactics of separate disparate strikes: air and underwater drone attacks, explosions of freight trains, and so on.

I admit the obvious: all these arguments do not bring us one iota closer to answering the most important question: when, how and with what will Putin respond? But, apparently, we will learn about this only at the moment when such an answer follows. Guessing is useless. You can only wait.

And here’s what you don’t want to wait for, but, apparently, you will have to. For most Russian citizens, the emotional intensity of February and September 2022 is a thing of the past. Man, as you know, gets used to everything. So our average Russian person is used to NWO. It is useless to fight against the habit. But this habit should definitely include a readiness for new powerful geopolitical surges and upheavals, as well as for the fact that they will occur unexpectedly.

Chairman of the Committee of Chiefs of the US Armed Forces, General Mark Milley, in an interview with Foreign Affairs magazine: “NATO and the United States do not want war with Russia … but the likelihood of escalation is very real … Every day we calculate the probability of escalation in each of our actions or every action of the Russians, because the consequences escalations are so severe and the consequences of an armed conflict between the United States and Russia, or NATO and Russia, will be devastating for both sides” – I do not want to say that news of this content, due to their excess, does not touch us anymore. They touch, of course. But the brain refuses to accept them, refuses to believe in their reality.

And to believe in their reality – in the sense, in the reality of escalation – unfortunately, it is necessary. If the drone attack on the Kremlin proved anything, it’s probably this: what was recently considered unthinkable is quickly becoming part of the routine.