Benefits worth a trillion: the Ministry of Finance estimated the amount of expenses for mortgages under state programs

Experts disagree on whether such spending is useful and whether it is worth saving.

The extension of benefits under the current mortgage programs in Russia will require approximately 1 trillion rubles in the next three years. The Ministry of Finance estimated the state treasury expenses until 2026 at this amount. These expenses include both the costs of extending existing government programs and maintaining the family mortgage and payments of 450 thousand rubles to repay housing loans to families upon the birth of a third child. MK found out from experts whether such spending is justified in conditions of a budget deficit.

Russians should have the opportunity to improve their living conditions, the Ministry of Finance is confident. However, in order for state mortgage programs to truly help those in need, it is necessary to abandon their mass character and focus on targeted support for those who really need it.

Currently, there are several government mortgage programs operating in our country. The most widespread of them are preferential mortgages in new buildings at 8% per annum and family mortgages. In addition, there is also a program for paying subsidies in the amount of 450 thousand rubles to repay housing loans for large families, that is, those with three children. All these benefits will be valid until July 1. At the same time, on January 23, Russian President Vladimir Putin promised to extend the mortgage subsidy program for large families in the amount of 450 thousand rubles, so it will most likely remain on the market for a longer period.

In addition to the programs listed, in our country there is also a preferential mortgage for IT specialists at 5% per annum, which is valid until the end of this year, a Far Eastern mortgage, which provides housing loans at 2% and operates until 2030, and a rural mortgage, the rates for which start from 2.7%. The authorities consider the three listed programs to be targeted and there are almost no disputes around them.

At the same time, the most heated discussions in “high offices” are caused by preferential mortgages at 8%, which are available to all borrowers. Last year, two departments at once spoke out against its extension – the Bank of Russia and the Ministry of Finance, and in favor of maintaining it – the Ministry of Construction. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has repeatedly pointed out that preferential mortgages lead to an increase in prices for new buildings, which makes housing less affordable for Russians. For his part, Deputy Head of the Ministry of Construction Nikita Stasishin noted that preferential mortgage programs make it possible to maintain demand for housing and ensure the fulfillment of the indicators of the national housing project. In addition, the authorities rightly view the construction industry itself as an engine for the economy: builders provide work to metallurgists, manufacturers of building materials, furniture and many others. “Approximately every 10th Russian citizen works or is associated with this field,” recalls Viktor Zubik, founder of the management company Smarent.

However, the interests of the budget are not limited to construction alone. “This year, the rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is not stimulating for the economy, therefore, although budget revenues are planned to increase by 22.3%, a tense situation may arise with the collection of taxes and the issue of saving will be especially relevant,” says financial analyst Andrei Vernikov. Even according to forecast calculations by the Ministry of Finance, the federal budget deficit in 2024 will be about 1.6 trillion rubles. (revenues are expected at 35 trillion rubles, and expenses – about 36.6 trillion rubles). It is not surprising that the authorities are thinking about how to save more efficiently. According to the head of the Analytical Center “Real Estate Market Indicators” Oleg Repchenko, in the context of an increased key rate, subsidies have become expensive for the budget, which is why the authorities began to curtail large-scale preferential mortgages at 8% for everyone: they have already increased the down payment and reduced the maximum loan amount .

According to the expert, preferential mortgages supported the housing market and the economy as a whole in times of crisis, but, stretching over years, drove up apartment prices and led to an imbalance in the market. New buildings today are sold almost 30% more expensive than resales of comparable quality, where there are no benefits. Only developers who have been able to sharply increase their income in recent years have benefited from the prolonged subsidies: budget money that goes towards preferential mortgages flows into their additional profits. “Even banks that issue a mortgage for the purchase of apartments in a new building receive an overvalued collateral on their balance sheet, which, in the event of financial problems with the borrower, they can sell on the secondary market only at a loss, which can lead to a global banking crisis in the country – this is the main risk,” — Repchenko is sure.