Belousov expects Russia’s GDP to fall by 2.8-3.3% by the end of the year
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The fall in Russia’s GDP this year will be 2.8-3.3%, and next year – within 1%, First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov said following the results of the first day of the APEC summit.
“This year we are quite stable going somewhere around minus 3%, minus 2.9%, minus 2.8%, approximately. Next year, we believe we can meet a 1% decline,” he said.
According to Belousov, the Russian economy has already passed the bottom point of the decline in consumer demand and is approaching it in terms of investment. The Russian economy is now more stable and predictable compared to the economies of European countries, the Deputy Prime Minister added.
Russian economy will continue drop until the III quarter of next year, concluded analysts previously polled by Bloomberg. According to Bloomberg Economics, Russia’s GDP will shrink by 3.5% this year and by 2% next year.
Earlier, the Bank of Russia, in its updated forecast, estimated the decline in GDP at 3-3.5% by the end of 2022. According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economy, GDP this year will decrease by 2.9%, in 2023 – by 0.8%, in 2024 -2025 the economy will grow at 2.6% per year. The head of the Accounts Chamber of Russia, Alexei Kudrin, noted that the decline will be 2.9-3.3%, and the forecast of the Ministry of Economics for the next year called “quite realistic.”
In October, the World Bank improved assessment of the fall of the Russian economy in 2022 from 8.9 to 4.5% and 3.6% in 2023. Among the most significant negative factors affecting the Russian economy, they singled out sanctions, the exodus of foreign companies, the uncertainty of prospects and the fall real incomes of the population, eroding consumer demand. In 2024, the economy may already return to growth, the WB believes. In the Ministry of Economics, this forecast considered overly conservative and not taking into account the planned and ongoing government decisions to support the economy.
The head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov noted at the end of October that the Russian economy on a quarterly basis will pass to growth at the end of this year.
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