Beijing showed the first rehearsal of the “peaceful liberation of Taiwan”
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In the middle of last week, Beijing announced the completion of the first phase of the exercises around Taiwan. Over the past days, the Air Force and Navy of the People’s Liberation Army of China (PLA) have demonstrated the ability and readiness to completely block the island. The Americans generally stayed away from contact. The high level of confrontation that has been reached will not come back. Now PLA activities around the entire island, and not just in the Taiwan Strait, will be the norm. The unpredictability of the time, place and scale of the new exercises will keep Americans, Taiwanese and other anti-Chinese forces on their toes. Any new provocation will lead to the next phase of confrontation and blockade.
The strength and determination of China was not in doubt even before the scandalous visit of Nancy Pelosi. Terrible shouts from Beijing caused genuine horror in Taipei. There, at first, they canceled the invitation to the speaker of the House of Representatives of the US Congress. Pelosi couldn’t afford to “lose face”. By persuasion and threats, she achieved the renewal of the invitation. But on the other hand, she had to enter Taipei from the “back door” – the plane with the lights extinguished landed on a deserted airfield with the lights turned off. A third person of the American state was not given the front gangway. An elderly lady descended the unstable metal stairs, clutching convulsively at the railing. The program of stay on the island was also reduced to a minimum, with relief sending the guest on a flight a few hours after arrival.
A sigh of relief swept the world – Pelosi’s plane was not shot down on the way to Taipei, he was not detained under the pretext of the Chinese Air Force exercises that had already begun. But Beijing’s response was much tougher and more systemic. A series of air force and navy exercises actually blockaded Taiwan, demonstrating its main vulnerability – economic. But, most importantly, Beijing bypassed the “stretching” intended for it and did not get involved in a full-scale armed conflict. After all, after the pacification of Tibet, Xinjiang and Hong Kong, America has one hope left to slow down the overtaking development of the Middle Kingdom – to provoke a civil war between the Chinese and the Chinese over Taiwan.
Beijing has shown so far only the first rehearsal of the “peaceful liberation of Taiwan.” Other rehearsals will follow as needed in response to subsequent provocations. Moreover, they will use new scenery, including aircraft carriers, cyber weapons, ballistic missiles. The dress rehearsal is still ahead, especially the premiere itself. As part of its preparation, China analyzes recent and current US strategic operations. Li Fei, a professor at Xiamen University from Taiwan’s neighboring Fujian province, told the Global Times that the Americans are now setting a trap for China, just like they did with Russia during the Ukraine crisis. They are trying their best to provoke China in the hope that it will overreact to US provocations without the necessary preparation. However, China, due to its confidence in its strength, is much wiser and more patient than Washington expected. Therefore, Beijing is using the US mistake to further improve its preparations for national reunification, Li Fei said.
How long will the current “intermission” last, and when should we expect a new aggravation of the Taiwan crisis? I believe that Pelosi’s raid was indeed an offhand act by a retired activist whose wildness was reinforced by the principle of separation of powers in the US Constitution. He brought a strong but short-lived confusion to the implementation of two well-thought-out solid scenarios at once, the American and the Chinese. Biden’s scenario is designed to gradually weaken China by stimulating separatist sentiment among Taiwan’s ruling elites and clash with the mainland. At the same time, before the presidential elections in 2024, the administration’s plans do not include a sharp acceleration of separatism, let alone Taipei’s fatal decision to secede from the Celestial Empire. Hence the oaths of allegiance to the principle of “one China” from the current US-China treaties. Hence Biden’s critical statements about Pelosi, the negative position of the State Department and the military department. Now Biden will have to rethink the script and raise the level of confrontation so as not to look like a weakling on the eve of the midterm elections.
On the other hand, Pelosi tested Xi Jinping’s typical “strategic patience.” The most recent examples of the effectiveness of such a strategy are the bloodless solutions to the problems of Hong Kong and Xinjiang. The use of armed police and PLA troops there at certain points in the development of the “color revolutions” looked inevitable. But the firmness of the political line, combined with tactical flexibility, made it possible to avoid bloodshed. An “iron hand in a kid glove” operated. For sure, a corresponding plan was developed for Taiwan as well. Now Beijing will have to make adjustments to this plan as well.
A more or less calm “intermission” can last until the end of autumn. The 20th Congress of the Communist Party is expected in Beijing in October, at which the economic course, domestic and foreign policies of Xi Jinping will be approved by representatives of 100 million communists in the Middle Kingdom. His already unlimited mandate to rule will be confirmed for another 5 years. In America, mid-term congressional elections will be held in November. President Biden does not risk his seat in the White House. But his Democratic Party is confidently moving towards defeat and the loss of a majority in both chambers. We add two plus two and get – until mid-November, something terrible should not be expected.
But then new officials will appear in both Beijing and Washington, who will offer their leaders some fresh options for implementing strategic plans. Very constructive proposals may follow from Beijing. Washington will continue to provoke Beijing with varying degrees of intensity. It is unlikely that Vice President Kamala Harris will follow in the footsteps of Nancy Pelosi. But they can send one or two ministers to Taipei. For example, an ethnic Chinese woman, US Trade Representative Catherine Tai. Another aircraft carrier group will be sent to swim in the South China Sea or in the Taiwan Strait. They will bring more lots of expensive spare parts for obsolete weapons. Figures of an average hand from the NATO countries, noisy Baltic “fighters against authoritarianism” will be pulled up.
Without receiving an adequate response to its proposals, Beijing may begin the second phase of rehearsal for “peaceful accession.” PLA planes will fly more frequently in Taiwan’s “airspace” and ships will enter “territorial waters.” As a result of the blockade on the island, economic problems will worsen. The business community will think about the adequacy of the ruling regime of Tsai Ing-wen, the main instigator of separatism. The Kuomintang Party, connected with big business, with its million members, an extensive organizational structure and huge capitals in the banks and industry of the island, is activated. Even as the crisis deepened, Party Vice Chairman Andrew Xia, a former high-ranking official in the Kuomintang government, traveled to China, to the cross-strait Fujian province.
Different thoughts began to visit the Taiwanese generals. One of them, a retired named Gao An-guo, recently called on the armed forces to rise up and ensure reunification with the PRC. General Gao held leadership positions during the reign of the Kuomintang Party, which stands for the unity of the Middle Kingdom. I think he has many like-minded people both among veterans and among young officers who are aware of their fate in the event of a real conflict. In addition, no one has canceled the old tradition of “bringing in”. During the civil war of 1946-1949, after appropriate persuasion, entire formations of the Kuomintang army surrendered or went over to the side of the Communist Party. The Communists took Beijing and some other major cities without a fight. Deng Xiaoping, who at that time was in charge of army intelligence, was considered the master of persuading the Kuomintang generals during the crossing of the Yangtze River. In terms of difficulty, crossing the mighty Yangtze is comparable to crossing the Taiwan Strait…
If the Americans continue to push Taipei to a fatal step, then we can expect new bold scenario moves from Beijing. For example, the expansion of the PLA Navy and Air Force exercise zone up to the island of Guam, where the main US forces in the Pacific are concentrated, including nuclear weapons depots. Chinese carrier groups will increasingly visit the seas near Japan and South Korea, Singapore and the Philippines. Joint exercises of the strategic forces of China and Russia will also become more frequent.
In recent days, the Kremlin has been analyzing the decisions of Xi Jinping and Biden with the same thoroughness as in Zhongnanhai, and the White House has followed the start of our “special military operation.” Beijing did not need the participation of the Russian armed forces, just as Moscow does not need the presence of “Chinese people’s volunteers” in the Donbass. Much more important is the very existence of a “second front” – Russian for China and Chinese – for Russia. Without this, our common enemies would have behaved much bolder and more reckless.
Driving a wedge into Russian-Chinese relations is next to impossible. But it is possible to outline new joint actions to demonstrate an alternative to the American model of the world order – the expansion of the SCO and BRICS. An excellent response to Washington would be Xi Jinping’s visit to the next Vladivostok Economic Forum and negotiations with Putin. New campaigns of joint Russian-Chinese fleets around the Japanese islands, as well as training flights of strategic bombers with such similar red stars on their wings, will not interfere.
Newspaper headline:
Beijing announces “Taiwan intermission”
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