Beijing reconciles Tehran and Riyadh

Iran and Saudi Arabia, which are the main military and political opponents in the Middle East, agreed in Beijing, through the mediation of the PRC, to restore diplomatic relations that were severed in January 2016. The countries will open embassies in each other’s capitals in two months. This is stated in a joint tripartite statement signed by Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, Musaid al-Ayban, National Security Adviser of Saudi Arabia, and Wang Yi, Head of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China.

As noted in a document published by the Saudi state agency SPA and Iranian IRNA, the decision to restore diplomatic relations was made thanks to the “noble initiative” of Chinese President Xi Jinping. The statement was preceded by four days of tripartite talks in Beijing.

“The three parties announce an agreement between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran, which includes an agreement to resume diplomatic relations between them and open their embassies and missions within a period not exceeding two months,” the statement said. The document notes that Tehran and Riyadh confirm mutual respect for each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as non-interference in internal affairs.

For the technical preparation of the resumption of diplomatic relations, the Iranian and Saudi sides agreed to hold a meeting of foreign ministers in the near future. The countries will also resume implementation of the 2001 security cooperation agreement, as well as the economic and trade cooperation agreements.

The tripartite statement made in Beijing also notes the contribution of Iraq and Oman to the settlement of Iranian-Saudi relations – it was these Arab countries that acted as mediators in the preparatory negotiations that took place in 2021-2022. The last meetings concerning this issue took place mainly in Baghdad. But since the end of 2022, China, an active buyer of oil from both Iran and Saudi Arabia, has also begun to actively show intermediary efforts.

In December 2022, Xi paid an official visit to Riyadh for the first time in six years. In mid-February 2023, Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi met with the Chinese President in Beijing, the details of their negotiations were not made public. And on February 22, 2023, during a visit to the Iraqi capital of Baghdad, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian directly stated Tehran’s hope for the restoration of diplomatic relations with Riyadh.

Saudi Arabia severed diplomatic relations with Iran in January 2016, prompted by Tehran’s harsh statements and attacks on the Saudi embassy in Iran following the execution in Riyadh of prominent Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr.

At that time, Tehran and Riyadh were actively involved in the civil war in Yemen, which had been going on since 2014, where the Iranian side supported the Houthi rebels (in the north of the country), and the Saudi side, at the head of the Arab coalition, supported President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi (in the south ). The Houthis, with Iranian technical assistance, subjected to rocket attacks on infrastructure facilities, in particular oil refineries, airfields, cities of Saudi Arabia and its coalition allies in Yemen.

One of the most sensitive was the attack on the facilities of Saudi Aramco in Khuraisa on September 14, 2019, which caused Brent oil prices to rise by almost 20% in two days, to $71.95 per barrel. In March 2022, an oil refinery in the UAE was attacked. But in January 2023, in parallel with reports of contacts in the field of the Iranian-Saudi settlement, the AR agency, citing sources, learned that Riyadh and the Houthis had begun informal negotiations with the mediation of Oman, which also mediates the Saudis in contacts with Tehran.

Saudi Arabia remained a key oil supplier to China in 2022 for the fourth year in a row. According to data published in January by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China, 87.49 million tons of Saudi oil were imported last year (1.4% more than Russian oil – 86.25 million tons). There is no official data on Iranian imports to China related to international sanctions against Tehran.

As an analyst of commodity markets explained to Vedomosti, “Opening investments” Oksana Lukicheva, if we take into account the “gray schemes”, during 2022 we can talk about imports to China of about 300,000 barrels. Iranian oil per day, and at peaks – up to 500,000 barrels. per day (from the Saudi side – 1.5-2 million barrels per day). “That is, with an optimistic assessment, we can talk about the supply of approximately 2.5 million tons of oil from Iran in 2022,” Lukicheva notes.

China is one of the few countries in the world that maintains close contacts with Iran and, accordingly, has the opportunity to play a mediating role in relations between Iran and other countries, says Yana Leksyutina, a sinologist and professor at St Petersburg University. Overall, close relations with what Washington calls “rogue states” isolated from the West has been a feature of Beijing’s diplomacy over the past 30 years, and has become a valuable foreign policy resource, she said. “In this regard, the role of China in this situation is very curious. Beijing seems to have learned to use this resource,” the expert said.

This fits in well with other steps by Beijing that indicate its desire to increase its role in ensuring global and regional security, Leksyutina said. “Other steps in this direction are China’s global security initiative and its plan to resolve the Ukrainian conflict,” the expert believes.

At the same time, as a source close to Iranian diplomatic circles explained to Vedomosti, Tehran has recently been rather dissatisfied with China’s weak involvement in international political issues relating to Iran. All the more significant, according to the interlocutor, is Beijing’s current diplomatic success.

China for the first time converted its economic influence in the Middle East into political, this agreement is also the first successful mediation effort of the PRC in recent history, says Adlan Margoev, a researcher at the Center for Middle East and African Studies at IMI MGIMO. According to him, this is a significant contribution to the solution of one of the largest knots of contradictions in the region. “It is symptomatic for world politics that China, which had previously distanced itself from such political initiatives, was able to achieve a significant result so quickly, even if Iraq and Oman laid the foundation for it,” says Margoev.