Beijing horizons of President Putin: Russia and China are looking for new formats for their own security
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Vladimir Putin’s state visit will take place in May, shortly after the official assumption of office as President of Russia. Then, in accordance with the Constitution, the government will be dismissed. We can expect important cabinet reshuffles and personnel changes at different levels in the Russian leadership. This gives Putin the opportunity to open “a blank sheet of paper on which you can write the most beautiful hieroglyphs.” Moreover, both in domestic and foreign policy. In China, even before the arrival of the distinguished guest from Moscow, the III Plenum of the 20th CPC Central Committee, which has been expected for several months, may take place, which should make key decisions in the field of economics. In this regard, personnel changes may also occur in Beijing.
In such conditions, it is worth opening a new chapter, and not just a page in Russian-Chinese relations. Unfulfilled expectations and unfulfilled plans can be attributed to departed figures. This may apply, for example, to the Plan for Strategic Cooperation in the Economic Field until 2030, the signing of which Putin has repeatedly spoken about since March 2023. In May, the prospect of a qualitatively new stage in bilateral relations until 2030 opens under the leadership of President Putin with his new six-year mandate. The unlimited mandate issued to Xi Jinping at the 19th CPC Congress in 2017 will be valid at least until 2032, when the 22nd Congress will be held. Given this prospect, Putin and Xi Jinping at the upcoming negotiations in May can focus on long-term, strategic and even global problems, leaving the current specifics to new actors in governments. They may be given new assignments, taking into account both the achievements and failures of their predecessors.
Putin’s “brush in a big hand,” “dashoubi,” can draw bold proposals in the field of global governance in the spirit of the words of Xi Jinping, spoken in March 2023: “Great changes are taking place in the world, the likes of which have not been seen in a hundred years, and you and I are driving their”. The words and proposals of the President of Russia gain weight due to successes at the fronts, stabilization of the economy and social situation in Russia. The Chinese leadership’s thinking about the current stage of relations with Moscow is reflected in the words of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi during recent negotiations with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov about “double counteraction to double containment.”
Anyone who is not blind can see: the West is waging a global “cold war” against Russia and China in order to contain “revisionist regimes” that threaten the “world order according to the rules.” On the Western Front of this war, NATO forces have concentrated on the borders of Russia, and bloody battles are already taking place in the Ukrainian sector. On the Eastern Front, more and more formations of the US armed forces are also being brought to the borders of the Celestial Empire, old military bases are being expanded and new ones are being created, Taiwanese separatists are being pumped up with weapons, and more and more new military-political blocs are being created, aimed at China, as well as Russia.
Anyone who is not blind can see: the “comprehensive strategic partnership” between Moscow and Beijing of past decades has actually turned into “combat coordination” in recent years. Russia and China have become a “second front” for each other. It’s time to admit this openly and consolidate the new reality in international legal form, in the form of a corresponding document. It would worthily crown the 75th anniversary of our diplomatic relations, which will be celebrated in early October.
President Putin’s new foreign policy proposals could be made taking into account the upcoming SCO and BRICS summits this year. Russia could take the initiative to resolve the long-standing border dispute between the other two SCO members, China and India. This long-standing dispute not only poisons relations between Beijing and New Delhi, but also weakens the solidarity of the SCO and BRICS, and the entire Great South.
Against the background of the advancement of NATO and the G-7 in the Indo-Pacific basin and the creation of more and more new military-political groupings under the leadership of the United States (AUCUS, Quad, the American-Japanese-South Korean agreement, and now the American-Japanese-Philippines agreement), the formation of new formats is ripe to ensure our safety. Russia and China could significantly increase the frequency of joint patrols with strategic bombers and combat vessels carrying hypersonic missiles and nuclear weapons. The natural next step would be to temporarily base themselves at each other’s airfields and ports.
The creation of multilateral associations is also ripe. First of all, they could be agreements between Russia, China and Iran, as well as between Russia, China and North Korea. In the future, it is possible to include Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Yemen, Vietnam, Indonesia and other countries in joint exercises and patrols of trade routes.
At the negotiations in Beijing, one can expect breakthrough proposals in bilateral relations. Their unprecedentedly rapid development is based on the coincidence of national interests, on the complementarity of economic structures and the proximity of political cultures. However, unexpected problems that have arisen in the context of leaps forward, especially in the field of transport and finance, require urgent solutions. The list of these problems and possible solutions are known and listed in intergovernmental documents. For more than a year after the March meeting of heads of state, the governments failed to agree and adopt the Economic Cooperation Plan until 2030. Now it is necessary to show political will by heads of state endowed with long-term and unlimited powers.
One should take into account the persistence of anti-Chinese and anti-Russian prejudices among the elites of the two countries, which have been oriented toward the West for several decades and are now, wittingly or unwittingly, slowing down the implementation of the decisions of the top leadership. Therefore, it is worth establishing special control structures in the field of bilateral relations. They could be new assistants to Putin and Xi Jinping with special powers and the necessary apparatus. The creation of special structures is characteristic of the entire period of the reign of Xi Jinping, who sometimes personally heads various “working groups” or special commissions of the CPC Central Committee. This is exactly how the victorious struggle to eradicate poverty went on, the systemic fight against corruption continues, unprecedented measures are being taken to restore order in the Central Bank and the financial sector as a whole. President Putin’s special representatives also act in different directions, although they are not endowed with commensurate powers.
“The new is the well-forgotten old.” I would like to use such words as a motto for creating a new financial structure that would help escape the all-seeing eye of Washington, which threatens all Moscow partner banks with sanctions. In 1896, against the background of competition between Russia and Great Britain for influence in the Middle Kingdom, the Russian-Chinese Bank (RCB) was created in agreement with the Dowager Empress Cixi and her chancellor Li Hongzhang. His board was in St. Petersburg, and his main office was in Shanghai. The beautiful building on the Bund is now home to the main currency exchange. RKB soon took second place among the top ten foreign financial institutions in China. His main task was to finance the construction of the Chinese Eastern Railway (CER), which connected Vladivostok and Transbaikalia along the shortest route through Northeast China (Manchuria). It was important for the Chinese government that the CER and RKB were commercial and not government entities. This did not prevent them from playing a key role in fulfilling the obligations of the Russian Empire under the Russian-Chinese “secret treaty” of 1896 to counter Japanese penetration into Manchuria. These obligations became one of the reasons for the Russo-Japanese War of 1904–1905.
In the current conditions, the creation of a large commercial bank with operations in rubles and yuan would help solve several problems at once. Normalization of mutual payments would make it possible to realize underutilized reserves of bilateral trade, investment and the creation of joint ventures. Such a bank would be capable of off-budget financing of colossal infrastructure projects. The connection between Russia and China would go faster thanks to the construction of new and modernization of existing railways and transcontinental highways, oil and gas pipelines, ports and airfields.
The most unexpected results can be expected from a new meeting of two heads of state, two commanders-in-chief, two grandmasters of geopolitics. Both of them are the main characters of the 21st century and will remain so for the foreseeable future. Both are true national leaders, capable of overcoming difficulties and emerging from their doldrums onto a trajectory of success. Both understand their historical role and are ready to play it in the name of their nations and ensuring peace throughout the planet.
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Beijing skyline of President Putin
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