Bargaining is appropriate, but not very large – Newspaper Kommersant No. 200 (7401) dated 10/27/2022
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As global growth weakens, global commodity prices will also continue to decline, but due to the strengthening of the US dollar in local currencies, they will remain high, which will put additional pressure on inflation, according to the World Bank (WB) Commodity Market Review. ). Thus, the cost of Brent oil has decreased by 6% since February, but 60% of oil-importing countries and 90% of grain importers faced an increase in prices denominated in national currencies.
The World Bank expects that energy prices, after rising by 60% this year, will decrease by 11% in 2023 and another 12% in 2024, but even after that they will remain 50% higher than the five-year average . The same factor will affect the increase in the cost of electricity and the increase in transport costs. The prices of gas in Europe and coal transported by sea are already 420% and 180% above the five-year average – higher natural gas prices will also lead to an increase in coal consumption. At the same time, the average price of Brent oil is expected to fall from $100 per barrel in 2022 to $92 per barrel in 2023 and $80 per barrel in 2024.
Prices for non-energy raw materials in the third quarter of this year have already decreased by 13% compared to the previous quarter, including for precious metals – by 9%, for agricultural raw materials – by 11% (now they exceed last year’s level by 9%). At the end of the year, the index of the cost of non-energy raw materials is expected to grow by 10.5%, next year prices may decrease by 8.1%. Thus, the cost of metals, after declining by 2% this year, according to the WB forecast, will fall by 15% (this is also affected by the decline in the real estate market in China), and then stabilize. Food prices this year will increase by 13.4% (including grain – by 20.6%), and next year they may decrease by 5%, the bank expects. This forecast, however, is subject to significant risks in both the short and medium term, the WB believes. Higher energy prices, for example, may support higher prices for other raw materials, in particular fertilizers: their cost will increase by 66.1% in a year, and it is expected to decrease by 12.4% next year. The forecast also provides for the return to the market of a larger volume of food supplies from Ukraine.
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