Bagdasarov predicted a third Karabakh war: “It could have serious consequences for Russia”

On Tuesday, Azerbaijan announced “anti-terrorist measures” in the region

Azerbaijan, according to the official statement of the military department, has launched an “anti-terrorist operation of a local nature” on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Baku accused Armenia of violating the 2020 trilateral agreements. Will Azerbaijan send its troops into the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh and can what is happening develop into a third Karabakh war? Russian political scientist, historian, expert on the problems of the Middle East and Central Asia, Semyon Bagdasarov, answered these questions in a conversation with MK.

According to Baku, its operation is a response to the fact that Armenian forces have strengthened combat positions in Nagorno-Karabakh and are also systematically shelling the positions of the Azerbaijani army. At the same time, the document notes, the civilian population and civilian infrastructure of Nagorno-Karabakh will not become targets of the operation. Strikes will be carried out only on the positions of the Armenian armed forces, their long-term firing points, as well as on combat assets and military facilities.

Former State Minister of Nagorno-Karabakh Ruben Vardanyan reported that massive shelling of the unrecognized republic had begun. Later, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense stated that the Armenian armed forces fired at Azerbaijani positions in the Agdam region from artillery installations. It was noted that the fire was coming from the territories where the Russian peacekeeping contingent was temporarily stationed.

“The fact that Azerbaijan will send troops into the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh is an obvious thing,” says Semyon Bagdasarov. – Now artillery preparation is underway, the destruction of some specific military targets that pose a threat to those units that will be deployed there.

The timing for this was also not chosen by chance. Now Russia is using all its forces and means in the Northeast Military District zone, it has no time for that. Pashinyan refused Karabakh. In general, the situation for Azerbaijan is extremely favorable. But for Russia this could have very serious consequences. If Azerbaijan now occupies Nagorno-Karabakh, then you can rest assured that in two or three months Armenia will raise the issue of the presence of Russian troops and border guards on their territory.

What forces can Azerbaijan use? They have already sent their main forces there, about two army corps. This is quite a lot, several tens of thousands of people. Taking into account the presence of artillery and aviation. I would not be surprised if these troops also include Turkish special forces, which, as a rule, actively participate in the activities of the Azerbaijani army, especially since they recently had a joint exercise on this topic.

– Is there a risk that everything that is happening could escalate into a third Karabakh war?

– As far as I understand, Nagorno-Karabakh has nothing to lose. Therefore, they will fight to the last, but, of course, they need help. And Pashinyan will do everything to prevent this help from reaching them from Armenia. Armenia will not send its troops there. Pashinyan has already surrendered Karabakh. This man is an agent of the British and US intelligence services, he even has the pseudonym “Editor”. He was specifically brought to power in 2018 precisely so that he would surrender Karabakh and then remove the Russian military contingent from Armenia. And he copes with it successfully.

– If Azerbaijan sends troops to Karabakh, what will be the fate of our peacekeepers stationed there? Will they have to be taken out?

– First of all, if they send troops and occupy something there against the backdrop of the presence of our peacekeepers, this will greatly undermine Russia’s authority in the South Caucasus, and not only there. All meaning of the presence of Russian peacekeepers on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh is lost.

Let me remind you that under the terms of the trilateral agreement between Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, the peacekeepers will remain there until 2025, and the status of Karabakh is not discussed until then. Now Azerbaijan is clearly demonstrating the following position: Russia has no time for this now, and we can generally forget about it. We have a best friend – Turkey, and we are friends with Great Britain and the Americans. So everything will be fine with us. What kind of our peacekeepers can we talk about then? Everything that is happening before our eyes is the complete discredit of Russia.