Azerbaijan and Armenia blame each other for the escalation in Karabakh

Russia “continues scrupulous, consistent, constructive work with both Yerevan and Baku,” presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said on September 7 in response to a question about how Moscow regards statements by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan about a dangerous situation due to the concentration of Azerbaijani troops. “The policy of encroachment on the sovereign territory of Armenia continues. By these actions, Azerbaijan demonstrates its intention to start a new military provocation against Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia,” the official website of the Armenian prime minister reports Pashinyan’s words. He also called on members of the UN Security Council to prevent escalation.

In turn, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry called the accusations of the Armenian leadership “false political manipulation.” “The real threat to security in the region is the ongoing military-political provocations on the part of Armenia, the ongoing claims of the Armenian side against the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Azerbaijan,” the statement said. The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry called for the withdrawal of Armenian armed forces from Nagorno-Karabakh, where they “contrary to their obligations still remain.” Azerbaijan does not deny the movement of troops near Karabakh, but explains this by exercises.

Since the end of August, Baku and Yerevan have accused each other of shelling. As a result of the latest armed clash on September 1, four Armenian servicemen were killed in the area of ​​the Armenian village of Sotk, the Armenian Ministry of Defense reports.

The current events are integrated into the logic of the previous stages of escalation, says Nikolai Silaev, director of the Laboratory for Analysis of International Processes at the IMI. “Nobody moves troops just like that. Baku is demonstrating its combat capabilities, so the use of its armed forces by the Azerbaijani leadership against Armenia is possible. The situation is dangerous,” the expert said.

Silaev explained that the lack of an agreement recognizing Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan on the part of Armenia, and clarification of the legal status of the Armenian population in the region on the part of Azerbaijan, remain the main factors for the regular aggravation of the situation. “Armenia does not refuse to sign a peace treaty, but also wants negotiations on the living conditions of the Armenian population in Nagorno-Karabakh, on ensuring their rights and security,” the expert emphasized. At the same time, Azerbaijan declares its readiness to provide them with the same rights as its citizens, but does not specify them – for example, it does not talk about the right to study in their native language. The factors that could lead to a de-escalation of the situation are now very weak, the expert concluded.