Autumn price marathon – MK

Rosstat published inflation data in September. It amounted to 0.87% for the month, and in annual terms accelerated to 6% after 5% in August. Since everything is learned by comparison, we note that exactly a year ago, inflation in September was microscopic – 0.05%. However, back then we didn’t always have enough money to feed ourselves, as we do today.

As the statistics agency notes, since the beginning of the year, consumer prices have increased by 4.6%. What awaits Russians before the end of the year? After all, prices are rising literally on all fronts – for food and industrial goods, as well as for services – including medical ones.

In previous months, inflation also made itself felt. In August it was 0.28%, in July 0.63%. Although prices usually do not rise in the summer, or even fall, deflation is recorded. But, as they say, not this time…

Inflation, like a shadow, has been haunting the economy everywhere, not only in recent months, but also in years. No matter how our business goes and no matter how much oil costs on world markets, the rise in prices of goods is just around the corner.

It is clear that Russians are primarily interested in food. After all, it is known that as you dig, you drown. According to Rosstat, food prices rose by 0.86% in September, and by 3.54% since the beginning of the year.

Oddly enough, vegetables are becoming more expensive, although mass harvesting in some regions is still ongoing. One should not expect a seasonal decline in prices this fall. The weak ruble and the sharp rise in prices for diesel fuel at the height of the harvesting campaign played a role here.

So, in September, prices for tomatoes rose by 21.7%, cucumbers increased by 13.2%, and garlic by 3.7%. Of the fruits, bananas, oranges and pears have risen in price the most.

The price of turkey meat and chicken legs soared – by 3.2 and 4.5%, respectively. In general, poultry meat is becoming more expensive right before our eyes. If earlier a cheap broiler cost 140 rubles per kilogram, now it is 185. Although expensive broiler carcasses, 240-250 rubles, the price tags have not changed.

The prices for sunflower oil (by 2.7%), polished rice (by 2.4%), pork, beef and lamb, as well as products that contain these ingredients – sausages and canned food – increased by an average of 1.4 – 2 .0%.

The list of products that drive inflation is quite long. Live and chilled fish, national cheeses and feta cheese, baby food, millet and even bread, the record harvests of which we never tire of being proud of.

At the same time, cabbage (22.7%), carrots (17.6%), and potatoes (14%) fell significantly in price. The price of vermicelli, pasta and margarine decreased slightly, within one percent. For once, salmon caviar fell in price (by 0.6%) in September.

In general, September did not present us with any surprises. Experts expected approximately this kind of price increase. The only thing that is surprising is the inflation in the vegetable line. During the period of mass harvesting, their prices rise on average. Although a year ago, as we remember, they were experiencing persistent deflation…

We ask candidate of economic sciences, financial analyst Mikhail Belyaev to explain the phenomenon.

“There’s nothing strange here,” he replies. – Our inflation is not monetary in nature. Monopolists who rule the market strive to increase their profits. And the shortest route is to increase retail prices. The state is in no hurry to curb the appetites of trade monopolists.

– The Central Bank forecasts annual inflation at 6-7%, and the Ministry of Economic Development at 7.5%. Where does this range of numbers come from?

– Officials from different departments think. The Central Bank is responsible for inflation and uses its own methods and tools to combat it. And the regulator needs to show that its efforts are not in vain and are having an effect. The Ministry of Economic Development has a more objective view of the situation, closer to the truth.

– In your opinion, what kind of inflation should we expect at the end of this year?

– It all depends on the group of goods. If we take it narrowly, for the products that we buy every day, then we will definitely reach 10% per annum. However, the wider the range of goods counted, the lower the inflation.

– Probably, it is also beneficial for the government to show lower numbers?

– Of course, also for the reason that we index pensions and various social benefits according to the level of official inflation. Each percentage of indexation means additional billions of rubles from the budget.