At the end of 2023, consumer inflation in annual terms amounted to 7.42%
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At the end of 2023, consumer inflation in annual terms amounted to 7.42%, Rosstat reported. Over the year, food prices increased by 8.2%, manufactured goods by 6%, and services by 8.3%. According to analysts of the telegram channel “Hard Figures”, taking into account seasonality, inflation at the end of 2023 amounted to 6% (9.9% for food, 5.4% for non-food and 1.5% for services). In December 2023, the growth rate of consumer prices weakened (see chart). According to the Ministry of Economy, month on month, taking into account seasonality, inflation decreased from 0.87% in November to 0.62% in December. The fastest slowdown was in the growth of prices for services – from 1.04% in November to 0.47% in December – against the backdrop of a fall in prices for foreign tourism by 8.4% per month and the seasonality of an increase in transport tariffs (price increases in December are taken into account in November ), explains Alexander Isakov from Bloomberg Economics. According to the Ministry of Economy, the rate of growth in food prices decreased noticeably (from 1.06% to 0.79%) and almost everywhere, while the rise in prices for manufactured goods increased slightly – from 0.53% to 0.55%.
From January 1 to January 9, 2024, prices increased by 0.26%, with the average inflation over the last seven years for the first nine days of January being 0.35%, due to the fact that “at the beginning of January, price indices for housing and communal services and cars did not increase, and the growth rate of price indices for public transport is at a historical minimum,” according to analysts of the “Hard Figures” telegram channel. They also record an improvement in core inflation indicators. According to the Ministry of Economy, in annual terms, prices as of January 9, 2024 remained at the level of the end of 2023 – 7.44%. Egor Susin from Gazprombank believes that we can talk about “some stabilization” of inflation: high rates forced the traditionally large December income to settle on deposits, which reduced the inflationary impulse. “Lending is still very reluctant to cool down,” he notes.
So far, analysts agree that inflation will begin to decline this year – to about 5% at the end of the year, if there are no changes in budget spending before the elections. “There will be no surprises from budget expenditures, which, coupled with the Central Bank’s tough policy, will gradually return the economy to growth rates comparable to the potential of 1–1.5% or slightly lower, and inflation closer to the target,” believes Dmitry Polevoy from JSC Astra Asset Management.
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