At the end of 2022, exports and imports fell almost simultaneously

According to the “mirror” foreign trade statistics of the countries that are the main trading partners of the Russian Federation (46 states, more than 80% of foreign trade until February 2022), collected by analysts of the Solid Numbers Telegram channel, in December 2022, Russian exports in annual terms decreased for the second month in a row – by 16% ($37 billion for the sample) against 8% a month earlier. Imports over the same period decreased in annual terms by 13% (to $ 23 billion) against a fall of 10% in November 2022, the decline in imports of machinery and equipment accelerated to 23%.

In the country structure of exports, the dynamics were similar throughout the second half of 2022. Due to energy resources, the export of goods to India increased five times in December, to Malaysia and Georgia – 2.4 times, to Hungary – by 81%, to Greece – by 58%. The share of China and India in the structure of exports at the end of 2022 increased to 25% and 13% against 17% and 3%, respectively, at the beginning, while in the fourth quarter of 2022, exports to these countries remained at the same level. The share of the EU over the same period fell to 25% from 41%.

Imports to Russia grew most rapidly from Armenia (by 4.5 times), Turkey (by 2.2 times), Kazakhstan (by 48%), and Uzbekistan (by 43%). At the end of last year, the shares of China and Turkey rose to 44% and 7% from 36% and 2% at the beginning, respectively, while the EU fell to 21% from 38%. “In the fourth quarter of 2022, tectonic shifts in the direction of trade flows subsided, which makes the disclosure of foreign trade data less sensitive,” concludes Rodion Latypov, the author of the calculations.

Meanwhile, judging by indirect data from the beginning of 2023, it seems that they were replaced by “tectonic shifts” in export volumes against the background of existing restrictions on the export of oil and oil products. According to the Central Bank, in industries oriented to external demand, in January there was a decrease in financial flows compared to the average in the previous quarter (weighted by the shares of industries in gross value added, seasonally adjusted) by 9.8% against an increase of 2.8% in December and 0.6% in November 2022. The January decline affected the largest sectors of this group, the Central Bank notes. The main negative contribution was made by oil and gas production; negative trends also affected metallurgy, oil refining and coal mining. The export industries were supported by the production of other vehicles and equipment.

Artem Chugunov