Asian countries to overtake China in GDP growth
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Today, the Asian Bank for Reconstruction and Development (ABRD) released a new forecast on the dynamics of the GDP of China and other developing countries in Asia in 2022–2023. Instead of the expected GDP growth in China of 5% in 2022 and 4.8% in 2023, the Bank believes that growth will be 3.3% and 4.5%, respectively. For the rest of developing Asia, the bank also lowered its 2022-2023 GDP growth forecast from 5.2% to 4.3% and from 5.3% to 4.9%. The bank noted that the last time China showed such low GDP growth 30 years ago – in 1990 to 3.9%. Also first over 30 years, China will show lower economic growth than other developing countries in Asia.
As reasons for the decline in the forecast for China and the rest of Asia, the bank’s analysts point to global inflation growth, a sharp tightening of monetary policy in a number of countries and a military conflict in Ukraine. For China, these negative factors were also joined by a significant slowdown in industrial and economic activity in the first half of this year due to severe mass lockdowns imposed by the Chinese authorities.
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