“Another fork in the road is being observed” – Kommersant FM

Vladislav Surkov wrote an article about the situation around Ukraine. The former high official, in particular, predicts the collapse of the neighboring country in 2024. Meanwhile, the head of the Russian delegation at the negotiations in Istanbul in March 2022, Vladimir Medinsky, revealed some details about why it was not possible to conclude a peace agreement. Thus, he responded to his Ukrainian counterpart David Arakhamia, who had previously admitted that the dialogue had broken down, essentially, due to the fault of the West. Kommersant FM political commentator Dmitry Drize sees in what is happening a hint of new negotiations.

The interview with David Arakhamia, apparently, had a certain effect. It did not go unnoticed in the Russian Federation; there was a reaction to it.

And this is a very interesting point. First, let us remind you, if anyone has forgotten or does not know, or is not following the situation: David Georgievich Arakhamia is from Sochi, he heads the “Servant of the People” presidential faction in the Verkhovna Rada. At the end of March last year, he led the Ukrainian delegation at negotiations with Russia in Istanbul.

Earlier, he admitted what the Kremlin has been saying all this time: yes, then there was an opportunity to reach an agreement. In particular, it was possible to agree to the country’s non-aligned status in exchange for a cessation of hostilities. However, it didn’t work out. Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson also prevented this.

Meanwhile, Arakhamia’s counterpart, the head of the Russian delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, outlined his version of those events. Moscow, naturally, agrees that the West is to blame for everything. And not only Boris Johnson did a disservice, but also the United States, where would we be without them.

And, in addition, not only the non-bloc status was discussed, the Russian Federation demanded to recognize Crimea and resolve the issue of independence or positioning of Donbass. But there really was an opportunity to make peace, and it was missed. And Kyiv recognized this.

Meanwhile, Vladislav Surkov, also no stranger to Ukraine, made his mark with another brilliant article on a given topic. The main thesis is: “Many on Bankova secretly dream of Minsk-3.” In vain. Next year will be the year of degradation and disorganization of the Ukrainian figurehead state.” It is no longer possible to hide the fact that there is obvious discord in the Ukrainian leadership. And not everything is smooth with the West. But in general, 2023 does not look very successful for them.

Nevertheless, let us dwell on the Russian position. Despite everything, the invitation to negotiations is read. What should I call it? “Minsk-3” or in another way, it doesn’t matter. Arakhamia’s speech seemed to be assessed as constructive. It’s simply logical to start a dialogue, if only because it is unknown how events will develop further. For both sides.

But as for Ukraine personally, you cannot count on anyone in this world, only on yourself. This signal comes from Moscow. We won’t guess how it will all end. The West is still not in the best shape. Now there is clearly another fork in the road, and you can try to stop all this, or vice versa.

The second option looks more realistic. Politics is not an easy matter. Here experience and professional training are needed, as well as instinct and insight. Especially when you don’t have tanks, missiles, or shells in the required quantities. This is the truth of life and the principles of realpolitik – the strongest always wins. Whether someone likes it or not.

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