Annual inflation slowed to 11.77% in January

According to the results of January, consumer inflation in Russia slowed down to 11.77% in annual terms after 11.94% in December, and in monthly terms it accelerated to 0.84% ​​after 0.78% in December, according to the materials of Rosstat.

Prices for services increased the most – by 13.47% in January compared to the same period in 2022. For non-food products, the price increase was 12.9%, for food – 10.16%.

At the same time, excluding seasonal factors, monthly price growth slowed to 0.43% after 0.54% a month earlier, the Ministry of Economics notes in its review “About the current price situation”.

In the segment of food products, which rose in price by 1.32% in January, the greatest role was played by the rise in prices for fruits and vegetables, which amounted to 11.38% compared to 5.83% a month earlier. According to Rosstat, cucumbers rose in price by 34.3%, onions – by 25.7%, tomatoes – by 22.3%, grapes – by 18.3%, and carrots – by 16.3%. At the same time, prices for sugar, meat products, pasta and cereals continued to decline.

Growth in prices for non-food products, excluding excisable products, accelerated to 0.21% after 0.05% in December, the Ministry of Economics notes. At the same time, near-zero dynamics was observed for three months before that. Medicines related to vital, rose in price by 0.8%, and not related – by 0.9%. Gasoline prices have not changed, diesel has risen in price by 0.6%. Cars, TV and radio products and means of communication have risen in price, while electrical goods and building materials have fallen in price.

Passenger transport services fell in price by 0.26%, mainly due to the reduction in the cost of air tickets by 11.8%, while those of foreign tourism and hotels rose in price by 3.07% and 0.31%, respectively.

Earlier today, the Central Bank reported that in the coming months, annual inflation in Russia descend below 4% due to the high base effect in 2022. In accordance with the base scenario of the Central Bank, annual inflation will be 5-7% by the end of 2023, after which in 2024 it will return to the target of 4%.

The main inflationary risks of the Central Bank thinks further tightening of sanctions restrictions, a rapid unwinding of consumption in the face of elevated inflationary expectations, as well as a shortage of workers and a lag in labor productivity growth from wage growth.

At the end of 2022, inflation in Russia amounted to 11.94% after 8.39% in 2021. This year, the Ministry of Economic Development expects inflation at 5.5%. According to the Ministry of Economy, annual inflation accelerated in the week from January 31 to February 6 to 11.72% after 11.5% a week earlier. Weekly inflation over the same period accelerated from 0.21 to 0.26%.