Annual inflation accelerated to 6% in September

In Russia, at the end of September, consumer prices increased by 6% in annual terms after 5.15% in August, according to published data Rosstat.

In monthly terms, inflation also accelerated, amounting to 0.87% compared to 0.28% a month earlier. Compared to December 2022, the increase was 4.6%.

Inflation of 1% or more per month was noted in 40 constituent entities of the Russian Federation; the largest increase (2.1%) in prices was recorded in the Sakhalin region. In Moscow, prices in September increased by an average of 0.8%, and in St. Petersburg by 0.5%. Since the beginning of the year, price increases have amounted to 4.9% and 4.0%, respectively.

During this period, food products increased in price by an average of 5.34% compared to September 2022 (by 0.96% compared to August 2023), with fruits and vegetables rising in price by 25.87% year-on-year. In monthly terms, such products became more expensive by 0.24%. In particular, tomatoes rose in price by 21.7%, bananas – by 19.3%, cucumbers – by 13.2%, oranges – by 12.2%. At the same time, prices for white cabbage decreased by 22.7%, carrots – by 17.6%, potatoes – by 13.9%, and onions – by 13.5%.

In September, chicken legs rose in price by 4.5%, sunflower oil by 2.7%, and rice by 2.4%. At the same time, vermicelli fell in price by 1.1%, pasta – by 0.9%, and margarine – by 0.7%.

In the segment of non-food products, inflation at the end of September amounted to 1.09%. The largest increases were shown in prices for gas motor fuel and diesel (6.2% each), domestic aspirin (4.9%) and furosemide (3%). Gasoline prices increased by 2.11%. Prices for computer monitors (by 1.6%), Sinupret (1.1%) and hand cream (0.8%) decreased.

On average, services increased in price in September by 0.61%. Holiday trips to the UAE and Egypt, popular this season, became more expensive by 13.6% and 12.1%, respectively. At the same time, trips to domestic Black Sea resorts became cheaper by 11.7%. Tuition in secondary vocational education organizations increased in price by 10.9%, and accommodation in student dormitories – by 8.9%.

For the week from October 3 to October 9, inflation accelerated to 0.24% compared to 0.21% a week earlier.

During a speech in the State Duma on October 10, Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Alexei Zabotkin said that annual inflation in the Russian Federation as of October 2 was 5.9%. To return inflation to the target of 4% in 2024, the regulator does not rule out tightening monetary policy (MP) next year, he emphasized. Annual inflation in Russia will reach its peak in the spring and summer of next year, Zabotkin added.

On August 15, the Central Bank raised the key rate by 3.5 percentage points to 12%. The reason was increased inflationary pressure and inflationary expectations, which are pressured by exchange rate dynamics. On September 15, the regulator again raised the key rate – by 1 percentage point to 13%. The Central Bank will keep the key rate at an increased level for “quite a long time,” Central Bank Chairman Elvira Nabiullina told reporters that day.

At a government meeting dedicated to budget priorities for 2024-2026, Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov gave a forecast according to which inflation growth will slow down to 4.5% by the end of 2024, and will reach 4% in 2025.