Ankara slows down payments from Russia: experts assess the prospect of freezing trade turnover

Russian importers are having problems with foreign transactions. Turkish banks began returning money to senders and rejecting payments. Meanwhile, Turkey supplies Russia with a variety of goods: from fruits and vegetables to clothing and electronics. If initially problems with financial transactions arose only with sanctioned goods, then this year absolutely all industries have encountered hitches. But what happens if the situation cannot be resolved quickly? Will there be a food shortage in Russia? Will vacationers encounter problems when paying for tours? Experts told MK about this.

Turkish banks are beginning to refuse payments from Russia. The reason is the fear of secondary sanctions from the United States. Meanwhile, Turkey is a “friendly” trading partner, but its banks are clearly not eager to fall under American sanctions. And they may well be introduced if it is proven that financial organizations are helping sanctioned companies and individuals.

Let us note that the trade turnover between Russia and Turkey at the end of 2023 amounted to about $57 billion, including about $11 billion in imports from Turkey and $46 billion in exports. Which, of course, is slightly less than last year’s record figure of $68 billion, but still not bad.

Traditional export items from Russia to Turkey are oil and petroleum products, as well as gas, aluminum, semi-finished iron and steel, and coal. The country imports citrus fruits and other fruits, tomatoes, as well as cars, spare parts and components, textiles and clothing from Turkey. Turkish resorts are one of the favorite holiday destinations among Russians, and the Russian tourist flow, in turn, makes up a significant share in the income of the Turkish tourism industry.

Let us add that after the start of the active sanctions fight, Turkey became a serious hub for “parallel imports”.

The refusal of Turkish banks to work with Russian ones could seriously affect the economy of our country, says private investor and financial analyst Fedor Sidorov. However, according to him, it is important to understand that the Turkish side also has a good additional benefit from trade with Russia.

“Ankara is now trying to demonstrate loyalty to the West and protect its banks from falling under sanctions – but it is unlikely to take real steps to sever trade relations with Russia. If the risks turn out to be too great, we will be able to arrange settlements through banks in third countries, including the CIS. There are many proven ways to make payments through friendly jurisdictions in Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and other countries,” he notes.

The general director of the EuroTransExpedition company, Kirill Rassadkin, told MK that most importers are now actually having problems making payments to Turkey. At the same time, according to him, the delays are unsystematic in nature and their official reason has not yet been named.

“They started talking about problems at the end of December. Now the scale of the disaster has increased, and every second of our clients complains about it,” he continues. – At first there were rumors that Turkish banks were unwinding payments intended for European sanctioned goods traveling through Turkey. Now there is a problem with payment for goods of Turkish origin.”

Raisa Donskaya, head of the company for international trade and foreign economic activity “Team Sicurs”, emphasizes that Turkish partners have been working with us for a long time and understand perfectly well that this situation did not arise due to the lack of solvency of the Russian side.

“I think that those who have been working in partnership with Russian companies for a long time will not freeze their work and will not stop supplies. There should be no interruptions as such. There is an expectation that by the end of this month the situation will be resolved in a working manner,” the expert says. – Problems with transactions, first of all, should be perceived as a new stage in the development of relations between Turkey and the United States. But, again, I don’t think that the situation will turn into a drama for Russian consumers. The market has already adapted to such news. A slight increase in prices and temporary local shortages are possible, but nothing more.”

If we talk about the impact of the banking problem on the tourism sector, then, according to BitRiver Communications Director Andrey Loboda, the situation should not affect this industry, since Russian tour operators are not under sanctions.

“Trade with Russia is very important for Turkey – it is not only a matter of business, but also of politics, and for many years to come. So, over time, it will probably become clear that this problem is exaggerated, and banking operations will resume,” Ivan Samoilenko, managing partner of B&C Agency, is convinced.