And “tomorrow” was the euro – Newspaper Kommersant No. 192 (7393) dated 10/15/2022

At the end of the week, the ruble stopped weakening against the world’s leading currencies, following the results of trading on the Moscow Exchange on Friday, the dollar fell by 1.5 rubles, and the euro by 2 rubles. At the same time, for the second time in history, the trading volume of the euro with delivery “tomorrow” exceeded 150 billion rubles, surpassing this figure for the dollar. Fearing sanctions against the settlement infrastructure of the Moscow Exchange, investors sold the euro, and when they saw that such sanctions had not been introduced, they returned to this currency, which, coupled with the sale of foreign exchange earnings, affected the exchange rate and trading volumes, market participants believe.

On Friday, October 14, the volume of exchange trading in euros with delivery “tomorrow” reached 152.3 billion rubles. This result is slightly less than the historical record set at the end of May this year (154 billion rubles) and 2-4 times higher than the result of day trading in September-October. It is indicative that most of the sales took place in the first half of the day, and at that time the rate was kept above the level of 62 rubles/€. However, when the intensity of sales subsided, the exchange rate steadily went down and fell below 60.2 rubles/€. As a result of the auction, the rate stopped at 60.7 rubles / €, by 2 rubles. below Thursday’s close. At the same time, the game to lower the dollar began with the opening of the trading session. As a result, in the course of trading, the dollar exchange rate rolled back to 61.6 rubles/$, the lowest level since the beginning of the week. The exchange rate at the close of trading amounted to 62.1 rubles / $, by 1.5 rubles. lower than the previous day’s close.

The current local strengthening of the ruble after a two-week weakening (see “Kommersant” dated October 12) market participants associate with a number of factors. “Formally, there was no further strengthening of the geopolitics factor, and market participants began to fix their positions,” says Polina Khvoynitskaya, head of investment strategy and analytics at Expobank. The restoration of liquidity surplus in the banking system this week also speaks of the strengthening of the ruble’s positions, Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank, points out. Thus, the balance of operations of the Central Bank with the banking sector is already again exceeding 1 trillion rubles, which “was largely due to a decrease in demand for cash rubles,” says Mr. Evstifeev. According to the chief analyst of Sovcombank Mikhail Vasiliev, the ruble was additionally supported on Friday by “statements President of the Russian Federation that partial mobilization will be completed in the next two weeks.

In addition to political factors, economic factors also played a role.

According to Mikhail Vasiliev, “exporters are beginning to sell foreign exchange earnings for settlements with the budget” – the October tax period begins on Monday, the peak of which will fall on October 25 and 28.

The factor of sales of foreign exchange earnings was strengthened, according to Polina Khvoynitskaya, “with the non-imposition of sanctions restrictions on the National Clearing Center.” In anticipation of the publication of the eighth package of EU anti-Russian sanctions, market participants closed their positions in euros. After the appearance of information about the non-imposition of restrictions on the NCC, through which all settlements on transactions of the Moscow Exchange pass, market participants began to buy back previously sold positions, she notes. At the same time, according to Evgeny Loktyukhov, head of the economic and sectoral analysis department at PSB, a surge in trading activity in the euro “holds back exchange rate dynamics, reflecting increased demand for the eurozone currency.”

The volumes of trades in the dollar in different sectors speak about the mood of investors in the currency. Thus, on Friday the volume of trading with delivery “today” exceeded 102 billion rubles, while the volume of trading with delivery “tomorrow” did not reach 75 billion rubles. As a rule, the volume of “tomorrow’s” trading exceeds the volume of “today’s”, and such an imbalance occurs in the event of a sharp change in the exchange rate, as was the case, for example, in early March and early April of this year. Vladimir Evstifeev links the increase in turnover with the “today” settlements in the total volume of trading on the Moscow Exchange with the growth in the activity of retail investors in the market. “Moreover, such urgency of conversion operations may be caused by the risks of transferring currency positions through the weekend. The situation is changing rapidly, so even a few days of no trading can be critical for market participants,” the expert points out.

Market participants do not rule out further strengthening of the ruble until the end of the month.

According to Vladimir Evstifeev, due to the peculiarities of paying income tax, “the supply of foreign currency will be significant until the end of October.”

Mikhail Vasiliev notes that the ruble will continue to be supported by high oil and gas prices amid the onset of the autumn-winter heating season, a surplus current account of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation, severe restrictions on capital movements, and the key rate is likely to remain at the current level of 7.5 % at the meeting of the Bank of Russia on October 28. According to him, by the end of October the dollar exchange rate may drop to 59–61 rubles/$, the euro exchange rate to 58–60 rubles/€. Evgeny Loktyukhov expects the dollar exchange rate to return to the range of 60–62 rubles/$.

Vitaly Gaidaev, Dmitry Ladygin