Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for October 17-21 – Finance – Kommersant
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For most of the past week, the ruble exchange rate was under strong pressure. From Monday to Wednesday, the dollar rose on the Moscow Exchange by 3.42 rubles, to the level of 64.42 rubles/$. This was facilitated by a sharp increase in demand for the currency amid increased sanctions risks. Toward the end of the week, the market began to be influenced by the seasonal factor associated with the approach of the tax period, during which the supply of foreign exchange earnings from exporters is growing. As a result, at the close of Friday’s trading, the US currency exchange rate amounted to 62.10 rubles/$, having added only 1.1 rubles over the week.
;
| Banks | Dollar exchange rate forecast (rub/$) |
|---|---|
| Russian Standard Bank | 61.00-63.00 |
| Bank Zenith | 63.00 |
| Expobank | 61.00-63.50 |
| BCS World of Investments | 60.00-64.00 |
| Consensus forecast * | 62.31 |
* The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of analysts’ forecasts
The Russian currency may strengthen for a number of reasons
Our forecast for the ruble/dollar exchange rate for next week is 60–64 rubles/$. The ruble on Friday continued to gravitate towards strengthening, despite the price decline in oil and the local strengthening of the dollar itself in the external arena. The Russian currency may be strengthening for a number of reasons. First, a large amount of foreign exchange earnings from exporters continues to enter the market, while imports are slowly recovering. Secondly, the pent-up demand for dollars and euros, which was formed in September against the backdrop of fears of blocking accounts in toxic currencies, was satisfied, the threat of which did not materialize in the end. Thirdly, we are seeing a positive local picture on the ruble debt market. The fourth factor will also increase the support of the ruble in the short term – this is the preparation of companies for the tax period. The dollar may temporarily retreat to the 60 mark.
The outflow of liquidity from the banking sector is also gradually fading away
Another round of ruble weakening is coming to an end. The geopolitical background is stabilizing, ahead of the tax period, which will cause the activation of exporters in the foreign exchange market. Given the low trading volumes in dollars and euros, the volume of currency supply may lead to the strengthening of the ruble and, in general, increase the volatility of exchange rates. The lack of an agreed price ceiling for Russian oil is likely to keep Urals prices at elevated levels over the coming week, providing support for the ruble. The outflow of liquidity from the banking sector is also gradually fading away, and this is also positive for the Russian currency.
The approaching tax period may add volatility to the foreign exchange market
The Russian ruble shows moderate optimism and strengthens slightly against the dollar. The approaching October tax period, during which the demand for ruble liquidity traditionally increases, can add volatility to the foreign exchange market. The publication of September data on high inflation in the US pushed the dollar down. Although the rise in prices in America has slowed down, it is not as strong as it was predicted. Against this background, the market is waiting for the Fed to continue actively raising rates. At the same time, the current situation here rather suggests that the inflationary peak of the American economy may have been left behind. Warms up the degree in the energy, and with it, respectively, in the currency markets, the statement that Russia will not supply oil to countries that have set a price ceiling.
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