Analysts surveyed by the Central Bank revised the forecast for GDP, interest rate and ruble exchange rate
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In 2023, Russia’s GDP may increase by 2.5%, analysts say. respondents Central Bank. In September, experts expected the Russian economy to grow by 2.2%. The inflation forecast was also raised: to 7% from 6.3% last month.
The Central Bank presents the median forecast of 28 economists from various organizations. The survey was conducted from October 13 to 17.
Analysts raised their forecast for the key rate in 2023 by 0.5 percentage points, to 9.8%. Thus, it is expected that the average key rate in October-December of this year will be 14.2%. In 2024, experts predict the key rate at 12.6%, in 2025 – 8.2%.
In 2024 and 2025, experts expect GDP to increase by 1.5%. The same forecast was made in September. The inflation forecast for next year increased from 4.5% to 5.1%. According to analysts, inflation will reach 4% in 2025.
Analysts expect that the average annual dollar exchange rate for 2023 will be 86 rubles/$, for 2024 – 94 rubles/$, for 2025 – 97.5 rubles/$, for 2026 – 98.2 rubles ./$.
On September 15, the Central Bank at a meeting of the board of directors raised the key rate by 100 basis points, to 13%. The regulator expects inflation to accelerate from 5–6.5% to 6–7% in 2023. The GDP growth forecast for the current year was maintained at 1.5–2.5%.
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