Analysts surveyed by the Central Bank predicted a 1.5% decline in GDP and 6% inflation in 2023
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The Bank of Russia published results monthly macroeconomic survey, which was conducted from 27 to 31 January. According to analysts, inflation in Russia in 2023 may reach 6%, and the country’s GDP will decrease by 1.5%.
In comparison with the monitoring carried out in December last year, the forecast for a decrease in GDP has improved. In December 2022, experts predicted a fall of 2.4% in 2023. At the same time, inflation expectations slightly worsened. According to the results of the last survey, inflation in 2023 was supposed to be 5.8%.
Analysts polled by the Central Bank believe that the growth of the Russian economy in 2024 will be 1.2%, and not 1.5%, as expected in December. The forecast for 2025 remained unchanged (growth by 1.5%).
The change in Russia’s GDP in 2025 by 2021 will be -1.4% (against -2.4% in the December survey). According to experts, the long-term growth rate of the country’s GDP will also not change and will amount to 1.5%.
According to the September estimates of the Ministry of Economic Development, GDP in 2023 will be reduced by 0.8%. In 2024, according to the agency, the economy will grow by 2.6%. World Bank at the end of last year revised forecast for Russia for 2023 to improve. The Russian economy is expected to shrink not by 3.6%, but by 3.3%. According to the International Monetary Fund, Russia’s GDP in 2023 will grow by 0.3% against the previously forecasted contraction of 2.2%.
More details – in the material “Kommersant” “Coup Rise”.
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