Analyst Goikhman named the risks of the transition to a progressive tax scale: it is more difficult to collect

Costs will increase, administration will become more complicated, and regional imbalances will appear.

The government has begun work to improve the taxation system, in accordance with the proposal of President Putin. Addressing the Federal Assembly recently, he called for “a fairer distribution of the tax burden towards those with higher personal and corporate incomes.” Currently, the Ministry of Finance is preparing amendments to the Tax Code – in particular, introducing additional rates into the progressive scale of income tax (NDFL). What could these changes be and what could they lead to? These issues were discussed by MK with Mark Goikhman, an analyst at the Capital Skills Financial Academy.

– In his message, President Putin spoke about fairer taxation, which the government is currently working on. In what fiscal areas should the government look for more justice?

– The message said that it would be fairer if those with higher incomes paid taxes at higher rates. To paraphrase the title of the old series: “The rich pay too. Even if they cry at the same time.” After all, for example, if a person’s monthly salary is 30 thousand rubles, then after paying 13% personal income tax on it, 26.1 thousand rubles will remain. And with a salary of 200 thousand rubles. – 174 thousand rubles will be saved. But the relative rate is the same. But the weight of the tax is greater for families with low incomes; it is more difficult for them. The same applies to companies with high and low incomes.

At the same time, according to Rosstat, in 2023, almost a third (32%) of the Russian population will have an average per capita cash income per month of up to 27 thousand rubles. Another 41% have incomes of 27-60 thousand rubles, 17% – 60-100 thousand rubles, and only 10% – over 100 thousand rubles.

Therefore, it is proposed to deepen the differences in taxation, taking into account such nuances.

– Citizens are most concerned about possible changes in personal income tax – moving away from the flat (or almost flat) scale that we have now. What changes are possible here: add interest for the rich and super-rich or remove (zero) interest for the poor and low-income?

– Options may vary in terms of differentiation of personal income tax rates depending on income. If there is a goal to reduce inequality, it is worth considering, for example, zeroing out the personal income tax on the minimum wage. After all, its presence is illogical – it makes real earnings less than the “minimum”. But the government is discussing the introduction of additional tax rates depending on income – with an emphasis on increasing them as income rises. The gradation is likely to deepen compared to the current situation. Now, in addition to the standard personal income tax of 13%, there is a 15% rate on incomes of more than 5 million rubles per year. It is possible that the tax rate will be raised above this value for higher amounts of income.

– A progressive scale existed in Russia in the 90s, and then no one paid taxes, businesses actively hid their income, and the treasury was empty. Could the situation happen again now?

– Any economic phenomenon has pros and cons. The disadvantages of a progressive personal income tax scale include, in particular, that the tax in this case is much more difficult to collect and administer. There is a possibility that business and the population will strive to increase shadow employment and evade taxation. Costs will increase when calculating and checking the accrual and payment of taxes. Additional regional imbalances are possible. After all, personal income tax goes to territorial budgets. If higher rates raise revenues, it will mainly benefit regions with a high proportion of wealthier people.

– Should we expect some more fine-tuning of the fiscal system – for example, improving tax deductions or optimizing tax benefits?

– In addition to the progressive personal income tax scale, increasing the flexibility of tax benefits is being discussed. In particular, it is planned to double the tax deduction if there are children: up to 2.8 thousand rubles. per month for the second child and up to 6 thousand rubles. on the third and subsequent ones. This is one of the elements of demographic policy. And an example of the fact that taxes have not only a fiscal function of filling the budget and redistributing income. But there is also a stimulating component. It may be worthwhile to be more flexible about the possibilities for other similar actions to support additional pressing changes. For example, regarding savings, investments in property, investments.