Analyst Belyaev explained what the abolition of the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings would lead to

The Central Bank has not yet found the “key” to the national currency

For the first time in 7 months, the Central Bank showed Olympic calm on February 16 and did not show its tough monetary policy, which it has been guided by since July 2023. He kept the key rate at the same level – 16%.

But does this mean that our national currency will demonstrate the same stability?

The question matters.

The ruble exchange rate still does not inspire much confidence among many Russians. It seems that for both currencies it is about to exceed 100, as has already happened twice in 2023.

The position of the Central Bank, which was voiced by the head of the department, Elvira Nabiullina, at a press conference on February 16, also caused an ambiguous reaction among economists. She proposed not to extend the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings, which was in effect from the fall of last year until April of this year, under the pretext that it had played its, so to speak, “historical” role. And now the ruble exchange rate will be determined by the strict monetary policy of the Central Bank (understand, the key rate) and the trade balance.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance and some other monetary departments are in favor of extending the mandatory foreign exchange earnings.

According to Candidate of Economic Sciences and financial analyst Mikhail Belyaev, its mandatory sale is important in order to smooth out the wide market fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate up and down. And remove speculative pressure on our national currency.

“In this case, I am on the side of the Ministry of Finance, which proposes to extend the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings,” he says. – Now we are in conditions of a creeping depreciation of the ruble against the dollar. But this is due to the general state of the economy.

The abolition of compulsory sales is more likely to play a negative role than a positive one. This will especially affect foreign trade. This area needs predictable ruble exchange rates, and if it starts jumping from side to side again, the business will suffer great damage.

– Since they started talking about canceling the sale at this level, could speculation on this topic begin in financial circles? And maybe our ruble exchange rate will sink in the near future?

– I do not exclude this, although this will not affect the state of the overall economy of the country.

– What is better today: putting money on deposit in a bank or keeping it “under your pillow”? And how long can high interest rates on bank deposits last?

– I would advise going to the bank, now the interest rates are high, reaching up to 20. You can “charge” not for a long period, but for only three months and get a normal income. I do not advise the overwhelming majority of Russians to resort to other instruments. It is unlikely that they will make more money somewhere. In addition, in order to earn income there, you must have a certain level of knowledge.

And a bank deposit is the safest; money there is insured for up to 1.4 million rubles.

I don’t see an alternative to bank deposits for the vast majority of individuals.

As for maintaining such a bank rate on deposits, it depends on the level of the key rate. 16%, at least, will last until the summer, then it will begin to gradually decline. Let it be not 16%, but 13-14, this is also a good percentage.

– When is it better to take out a loan for our fellow citizens? Now or wait until better times?

– I would not recommend taking out a loan unless there is a special need. Therefore, weigh everything carefully: is it necessary to take out a loan? Well, only if there is a very urgent need…