An increase in GDP does not indicate that the economy is reaching sustainable growth – Kommersant

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov said that in the next three years the economy will grow at a rate slightly above 2% and will further accelerate to 3%. At the same time, GDP growth in 2023 by 3.6%, according to him, does not yet mean that the country’s economy has reached a sustainable level.

“This only speaks of one important thing: that we coped with the sanctions shock, we withstood the sanctions blow and overcame it, but this does not mean at all that we have entered a trajectory of sustainable economic growth,” Mr. Belousov said at Entrepreneurship Day ( quote from “Interfax”).

He added that achieving sustainable economic growth remains a key challenge for the next six years. Without an increase in GDP commensurate with or exceeding the global one, Russia will not be able to solve social and defense problems, the Deputy Prime Minister clarified. Achieving stable economic growth means “a fairly large-scale structural restructuring.”

Andrei Belousov said that Russia was faced with a set of systemic restrictions. According to him, about 80% of companies face a shortage of labor supply. In addition, the growth rate of hydrocarbon exports will decline to approximately 1% per year by 2030.

According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economy, in 2024 Russian GDP will grow by 2.3%. The Central Bank expects its growth by 1–2%. In January, the International Monetary Fund adjusted the forecast for the Russian Federation for this year is from 1.1% to 2.6%, which is significantly higher than the estimates of both Russian and international analysts.

For other GDP forecasts, see the Kommersant publication. “Academics lower GDP growth expectations”.

Petr Buzlaev