All attention to deposits – Picture of the day

Despite the fact that at the March meeting the Central Bank left the key rate unchanged, a number of banks began to increase the yield on deposits. What factors influence the policies of banks in terms of attracting client funds today – in the Kommersant-Review material.

Traditionally, changes in the key rate are the main indicator that market players focus on, since it determines the cost of money in the market. However, in the current conditions, we observe that the key rate has not changed since December 18, 2023, but at the end of March banks began a campaign to increase the profitability of their deposits.

Over the past month, rates on ruble deposits and savings accounts were increased by Sberbank, Gazprombank, Alfa Bank, MKB, Renaissance Bank, TKB, Asian-Pacific Bank, and Home Credit. Some banks have launched new ruble deposits with high rates – the Zablachny deposit with a yield of up to 16.5% per annum from Gazprombank, MKB. Warm welcome” with a rate of up to 15.8% per annum, “Spring mood” from Rossiya Bank with a rate of up to 14.6% per annum.

Battle for the investor

The round of sharp increases in deposit rates began in the fall of 2023, and today many banks are experiencing the expiration of the deposits they attracted then. Then the maximum rates were offered mainly for a period of six to nine months. In order to avoid a significant outflow of depositors, banks have to offer competitive conditions. Thus, some banks have already raised rates to 17% per annum, and on marketplaces you can find offers even at 18.5% per annum.

Contrary to analysts’ expectations that a possible easing of monetary policy, followed by a reduction in the key rate, could begin this fall, not all market players share this forecast. There are those who believe that the time of high stakes may drag on, and in this situation the one who plays ahead wins. There is also an important regulatory factor, clarifies the managing director of the NKR rating agency Mikhail Doronkin; from March 1, systemically important banks must meet the short-term liquidity standard. “This, in turn, requires them to provide more stable and long-term market funding,” the expert notes. Let us remind you that from April 1, systemically important banks will have to maintain the N26 (R27) standard at a level of at least 40%.

It is worth paying attention to the fact that, although more than ten banks have announced an increase in rates on deposits and savings accounts, this is not an increase in the maximum limit, but an adjustment within the product line in terms of terms. At the same time, several banks, on the contrary, reduced deposit rates. “In our opinion, we are now seeing a trend where a number of market participants – perhaps those who initially took a conservative position and did not offer too high a return – are now closing the liquidity gap or are ready to increase assets, that is, place raised funds. But there are those who, on the contrary, having increased the volume of liabilities to the required amount, reduce rates in order to stop the influx of deposits. In other words, banks are solving their tactical problems,” says Yuri Gribanov, CEO of Frank RG.

Not only deposits are growing

At the same time, experts do not yet see any risks for the sector in the policy of generous deposit offers. Historically, the danger was that, while attracting expensive money, the bank was not able to place it in profitable instruments and lost interest margin. “Today we see that banks have a set of tools where they can invest client funds, and these are not only securities, but also classic lending,” notes Roman Koenigsberg, head of the internal audit and risk management department at FBK. “Due to the fact that unemployment is at record lows, consumption is not decreasing, but, on the contrary, growing. This stimulates demand for lending from both retail and corporate borrowers.”

This trend was also noted by the Bank of Russia at the end of March. “Consumer sentiment is near historical highs, citizens’ interest in large purchases has been growing since December (2023.— “Kommersant“). In past periods of significant tightening of monetary policy, we did not observe this… Now we are observing a rather unusual situation when a strong increase in savings is accompanied by active consumption,” the regulator said in a press release about the decision to maintain the key rate at 16% .

Depositor or investor?

Today, it is becoming more difficult for banks to attract deposits than a few years ago, because during this time the average retail client has many alternative options to obtain high returns. Banks have to compete not only with each other, but also with the stock market, whose popularity among ordinary citizens is rapidly growing. “At the same time, banks have less room for maneuver, since they can only offer deposits at high interest rates on various conditions. Moreover, they cannot significantly deviate from the level of the key rate; this is provided for at the legislative level,” notes Anna Kokoreva, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments.

It is noteworthy that at the moment the most attractive rates today can be found on short-term deposits – mainly for three to six months. At the same time, instruments with different levels of profitability and levels of risk are available on the stock market. “These are debt instruments – government and corporate bonds, the yield of which varies from 14% to 24%. For stocks, the return may be higher, but the risks are also greater. The growth potential for some companies reaches 80%, for example, for VTB shares. Plus, a number of companies pay dividends – on average, the dividend yield is about 10% (Severstal, Rosneft), less for some securities (Tattelecom, Rostelecom), for some more (mainly for the preferred shares of Surgutneftegaz ” and “Tatneft”). There is also the opportunity to invest in commodity assets and indirectly in foreign stock market indices. Plus, there are options for collective investments, for example mutual funds, which provide returns higher than bank ones,” lists Anna Kokoreva.

As we can see, the choice is varied, and that’s not all. Experts advise paying attention to floaters – bonds with a floating coupon (depending on the key rate or RUONIA and a fixed premium for credit risk), where you can get a yield of 17% per annum. “Among the interesting issues we can highlight Rosseti Moscow Region, 001P-05, RusHydro, BO-P12, Rosselkhozbank, BO-02-002P,” says Tsifra Broker analyst Anna Buylakova, clarifying that for now the Bank of Russia is keeping the rate at a high level and does not give signals for its reduction, floaters can give a very interesting current coupon.

By the way, banks are also looking towards products with floating rates. At the beginning of April, Sber introduced a new deposit with a floating rate “Key Save” for premium clients – the profitability of the deposit depends on the level of the key rate. Plans to introduce a similar product were previously discussed at VTB Bank. “However, deposits with floating rates will not be a massive story, since the majority of clients are wary of them – they do not like the factor of uncertainty. Moreover, now, when no further increase in the key rate is expected, the only question is when it will begin to decline,” points out Yuri Gribanov.

Yulia Ivanova