Aid to Ukraine and Israel is not included in the US interim budget

Speaker of the US House of Representatives Mike Johnson should introduce a bill on temporary funding for the federal government to a vote, bypassing the relevant committee. This allows you to proceed with the procedure without any preliminary discussions. But, taking into account the peculiarities of the procedure, approval of the bill requires not an ordinary majority of votes (50% + one vote, 217 votes) as usual, but a qualified one (2/3, 288 votes). November 17th is the deadline for the US Congress to approve the draft federal budget for the new fiscal year. Otherwise, a full or partial shutdown will be announced. During this period, the work of federal departments and national parks is suspended, government employees do not receive salaries or are sent on vacation. The ability to obtain loans for small businesses and access to social services are limited.

The stopgap funding bill was announced by Johnson on November 11. According to it, funding for departments is extended in two stages. The Departments of Agriculture, Transportation and Veterans Affairs will be funded until January 19, and the Department of Defense and remaining departments will be funded until February 2. Selected agricultural programs will be funded until September 30. This is intended to provide greater support for the document. However, the bill does not provide for the allocation of funds to either Ukraine, Israel, or Taiwan, which the administration requested.

Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer gave a neutral assessment of House Speaker Johnson’s plan to prevent a shutdown. Schumer said the initiative is “far from flawless,” but the most important goal remains preventing a government shutdown. As a sign of readiness to consider Johnson’s proposal, Schumer postponed consideration of a parallel document developed in the Senate. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell also expressed support for Johnson’s actions. “Republicans have prepared a responsible measure that will help avoid spending cuts and finish important work,” the senator said. US President Joe Biden also refrained from making harsh comments. He stated that he would decide whether to sign or veto the document only after its formation. But, according to various sources, at least eight Republicans in the House of Representatives have warned of their intention to vote against Johnson’s initiative.

The first stopgap funding bill was approved in the House by Republicans on Sept. 30, with support from Democrats. For this, the right-wing wing of the party removed Speaker Kevin McCarthy from his post. Given the slim majority of Republicans in the House (221 to 213 Democrats), Johnson will have to win support from Democrats. It is assumed that this may again provoke ultra-conservative Republicans to propose a vote of no confidence against the speaker. But, as Axios reported on November 14, citing sources within the party, they (representatives of the right wing) will not do this.

The situation is critical, so the bill will most likely be approved, says Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics. “There are a few days left before the shutdown, and the bill, if approved by the House, must pass in the Senate,” he explained.

The expert noted that the risk of Johnson’s removal due to his possible cooperation with the Democrats is much lower than in the case of McCarthy. Suslov explained this by the fact that Johnson has the support of Trump and himself represents the right wing of the Republican Party. “Even far-right Republicans understand that another congressional paralysis or shutdown will negatively affect their chances during the next elections. They may not approve of Johnson’s initiative, but they are unlikely to try to remove him,” Suslov concluded.

There is no clear position of the Democrats on this issue yet, but, apparently, the majority of members of both parties will support the bill, believes political scientist Jan Veselov. The expert noted that the ultra-conservative wing of the Republican Party, despite previous experience, will not seek to remove Johnson for helping Democrats pass the bill. “It just doesn’t make sense. I don’t think that among Republicans on both flanks there is a desire to organize another grueling battle for the removal and then election of a new speaker,” Veselov said.