After the liberation of Tabaevka, the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Kupyansk face a “local disaster”

After liberating the village of Tabaevki and establishing control over the key height, the Russian army continues to build on its success in the Kupyansk direction. On Tuesday, January 30, information began to arrive about the advance of our troops on the nearby villages of Berestovoe, Kotlyarovka and Kislovka. If the enemy loses control over these villages, then the situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces could turn into a disaster on a local scale – the outer contour of the defense of Kupyansk will collapse.

In the meantime, the Ukrainian Armed Forces may be left without fuel – at night the transshipment town of Zmiev, which is west of Kupyansk, came under our attack. There the enemy stored ammunition and transported larger forces. According to military expert Alexey Sukonkin, these strikes could seriously disrupt the logistics of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and disorient the enemy.

Let us remind you that on Monday, January 29, it became known about the liberation of the village of Tabaevka in the Kharkov region. Motorized rifle units of the West group of troops, supported by fire from tanks, defeated units of the 103rd territorial defense brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. As a result, our fighters took a bridgehead at an altitude of 196 meters, thereby simplifying the work of advancing in the direction of Kupyansk.

According to military experts, the loss of Tabaevka is a huge problem for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

“Our troops here have not only numerical, but also powerful firepower. And it will be extremely difficult for them, and most likely impossible, given the forces deployed here,” explained expert Yuri Podolyaka.

According to him, the Russian army is now actively developing its success, advancing on Kislovka, Kotlyarovka and Brestovoye. According to experts, Berestovoe is geographically cut off from supply routes and they will not be able to promptly bring up the reserve of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which will put the enemy in this village “in an uncomfortable position.”

Thus, the Ukrainian group risks receiving a blow from the south-east. If this happens, then holding key positions in the Sinkovka area will cease to have strategic meaning.

-Yesterday (January 29 – “MK”) there were successes in Kislovka, Kotlyarovka (the Ukrainian Armed Forces have already abandoned it, but they are holding the hills north of Kotlyarevka – for this reason our troops do not go there)… Our troops are also putting pressure on Berestovoye. If we manage to break through these key points, it will be a disaster on a local scale for the enemy – the outer contour of the defense of Kupyansk will simply collapse.

In addition, battles are also taking place in Sinkovka. Motorized rifle units, in cooperation with artillery, repelled three attacks by assault groups of the 30th and 32nd mechanized brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. According to some, as yet unconfirmed, reports, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have already lost part of the village as a result of our assault operations in the forest to the west of the village.

Meanwhile, on the night of January 30, the Russian army attacked an oil depot in the city of Zmiev, thereby depriving the enemy of not only fuel, but also a transshipment point. The small town, which is located west of Kupyansk, was previously visited by pretty battered units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on rotation. As a rule, these were troops from the Izyum-Kupyansky direction.

According to the head of the Nikolaev underground, Sergei Lebedev, recently it was decided to transport larger forces and ammunition to Zmiev, which became known to our intelligence:

“Tonight they received clarification from the Russian Ministry of Defense that we know all the places. Army intelligence knows them, and local residents confirm and give details,” Lebedev wrote.

According to military expert Alexey Sukonkin, by striking the oil depot, we deprived the Ukrainian Armed Forces of maneuverability:

-A petroleum depot is a fuel resource that troops can use to support their daily activities. If there are active hostilities, then a huge amount of fuel is consumed to support them, and the maneuverability of the troops depends on this volume. Moreover, if in the direction where some offensive attempts are being made, fuel storage sites are destroyed, then this will seriously disrupt all logistics for the enemy and he will not be able to carry out his planned tasks. Accordingly, failure to complete tasks in one place will lead to failure in another, and so on.

-Alexey, why is this outer contour of the defense of Kupyansk so important for the enemy? How can the loss of small villages come back to haunt the Armed Forces of Ukraine?

-According to information circulating in Ukrainian public pages, Russia is concentrating a large strike force in the Kharkov direction. The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine assumes that this group will not be aimed at liberating Kharkov, but at pushing the border back by 10-15 kilometers. This should make it possible to seriously protect Belgorod from artillery strikes and enemy multiple launch rocket systems. And the enemy is very afraid of the development of such a scenario… In addition, the main events are now taking place in Avdievka. In order to prevent the enemy from grouping his forces there, there is constant tension in other directions. It’s probably difficult to call the Kupyansk direction a priority, compared to the same Avdeevka. But this is precisely the direction to which the enemy is forced to constantly transfer its resources.

-But there has not yet been any serious breakthrough on our part. How likely is it?

-Now there is such a constant creeping offensive in the Kupyansk direction. An offensive in the form in which we know it from the Great Patriotic War is now probably impossible due to the development of weapons and reconnaissance. The West provides Ukraine with information from satellite and space reconnaissance, so the offensive now looks like consistent, systematic work by infantry assault units and no major breakthroughs.

Maybe in the future, when the Armed Forces of Ukraine are weakened sufficiently by the actions that are taking place now, we will again see an advance of 50 or more kilometers per day. But now this is impossible.

-It is known that a tank brigade is concentrated near Kupyansk near the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Is it possible that the enemy will use NATO heavy armored vehicles in battle?

– Just today I read Western analytics and they are very sorry that the technical readiness of the tanks that were transferred to Ukraine was not at the level they expected. They say that at the moment, about 25% of the Leopard tanks that were delivered to Ukraine have been destroyed, some of them are currently in use. There have been some isolated attempts to use them at the forefront. But the bulk require repairs and are located in rear areas. Western authors believe that these tanks cannot be used in the near future. This data can be either true or deliberate misinformation. It cannot be ruled out that they are half-ready and awaiting a decision for their further use. On the other hand, as I already said, with the development of weapons of destruction, it is difficult to imagine breakthroughs that would not end in disaster, as was the case for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the area of ​​the villages of Urozhainoye and Rabotino in the summer of 2023. Then the powerful tank wedges, which were supported by motorized infantry on the Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and other combat vehicles, did not reach the first line of defense and were destroyed while still in the defense support zone.