African peace plan presented in Kyiv and St. Petersburg

On June 17, Russian President Vladimir Putin received in St. Petersburg a mission of seven African countries that presented a peace initiative to resolve the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. It is led by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa. A day earlier, he, along with President Hakainde Hichilema of Zambia, President Azali Assoumani of the Comoros (chairing the African Union in 2023), President of Senegal Maki Salem, Prime Minister of Egypt Mustafa Madbouly, and Special Representatives of the Presidents of the Congo and Uganda, Florent Ntsiba and Ruhakana Rugunda met in Kiev with President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky.

Commenting on the results of the meeting on June 17, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that although the African initiative is difficult to implement, Putin has shown interest in it. “Not all provisions can be correlated with the main elements of our position, but this does not mean that we should not continue to work. Both African leaders and Putin expressed their political will to continue the dialogue,” Peskov said.

Ten points of the peace plan of the African countries Ramaphosa announced yesterday in Kyiv. These include the need to achieve peace “by negotiation and diplomatic means”; ending hostilities “as soon as possible”; “de-escalation of the conflict on both sides”; “respect for the sovereignty of states and peoples in accordance with the UN Charter”; “security guarantees for all countries”; provision by Russia and Ukraine of the movement of grain and fertilizers for needy African countries in accordance with the grain deal”; humanitarian support “to the victims, the real victims [конфликта]»; the exchange and return of prisoners of war and displaced persons, “including children”; “restoration of Ukraine”; “greater involvement of Africa in the peace process”.

Zelensky, at a meeting in Kyiv, spoke out against freezing the conflict (i.e., an early truce, which is proposed by the Africans) and repeated the demand for the withdrawal of Russian troops from territories that Kiev considers its own.

The African Initiative is not the first peace plan for the Ukrainian conflict. China unveiled its plan in February, Brazil made proposals in April, and Indonesia in June. Kyiv insists that the settlement should be based on 10 points of the Ukrainian president, which, in fact, are equal to the capitulation of the Russian Federation. The Kiev regime rejects other options for ending the conflict.

Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of the Russia in Global Affairs magazine, doubts that the African peace plan by itself will be able to lead to any concrete results, but it indicates the ambitions of the countries of the continent to participate in solving problems of a global scale.

The African peace initiative in an ideal situation can lead to dialogue and possible de-escalation, says Natalya Piskunova, associate professor at the Faculty of World Politics at Moscow State University. “The way out of the armed conflict declared by the African group also reflects the long-term universal scheme for the settlement of conflicts under the auspices of the UN,” the expert says. So far, the African peace initiative looks the most thoughtful and balanced compared to those previously proposed, Piskunova concludes.

Since the Ukrainian crisis is a natural development of the deterioration of relations between Russia and the West, which began back in 2011, any peace plan, even the most well-thought-out one, is doomed to failure in advance, Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, a researcher at the IMEMO RAS, argues. The conflict will end only when the Western states, and the US in particular, lose faith in the possibility of achieving their political goals. According to the expert, now the West is drawing resources from Russia due to the Ukrainian conflict, damaging its economy and isolating Moscow from part of the international community. “Ukraine here is only a means to achieve these goals, and not an end in itself. That is why the West insists for any peace initiatives on tough and unrealistic demands on the Russian side,” Officers-Belsky sums up. At the talks with the African delegation, Putin also revealed interesting details of the Russian-Ukrainian talks in the spring of 2022 in Istanbul, where, according to him, the parties initialed the draft treaty. But then Kyiv “threw him into the dustbin of history” as soon as Russia withdrew its troops from the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions. “It is called “The Treaty on Permanent Neutrality and Security Guarantees of Ukraine”. 18 articles. Moreover, there is also an application for it. It concerns the armed forces and other things. Everything is spelled out down to units of military equipment and up to the personnel of the armed forces [Украины]”, – said the head of state. He stressed that Moscow does not refuse negotiations, the Ukrainian authorities have refused dialogue.

Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin announced a “dramatic reduction in the military activity of the Russian armed forces in the Kiev direction” immediately after the talks in Istanbul with the Ukrainian delegation on March 29, 2022. Earlier, on June 13, Putin announced that the Istanbul document was initialed by the Ukrainian side. Russia was represented at the talks by Assistant to the Head of State Volodymyr Medinsky, and Ukraine was represented by the chairman of the ruling Servant of the People party, David Arakhamia.

The negotiations, according to a Vedomosti source close to the Russian delegation, went in several directions. One block of questions concerned the non-bloc status of Ukraine, according to which Kyiv was forbidden to join NATO and the country received a neutral status. Following the talks, Medinsky said that the Ukrainian side agreed with this clause with some reservations. Another block reflected the issues of demilitarization, and in fact – the quantitative restrictions of the Ukrainian army. Kyiv insisted on maintaining the strength of the Ukrainian armed forces at the time of the signing of the treaty, and Moscow insisted on a radical reduction and elimination of long-range systems.

“The very fact of the talks in Istanbul showed that Russia wanted to end the hostilities and move towards a peaceful settlement,” says Vladimir Bruter, an expert at the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies. – This attempt was fruitless due to the efforts of the West. The negotiations would have failed anyway, and the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kyiv did not affect the situation.”