ACRA predicts a slowdown in Russian GDP growth in 2024 to 0.5-1.3% – Kommersant

The ACRA rating agency forecasts Russian GDP growth at the end of 2023 at the level of 3-3.2%. In 2024 it will slow down to 0.5-1.3%, follows from the updated macroeconomic forecast for 2024-2026.

“ACRA continues to expect that economic growth in the forecast period will be positive, and the process of structural transformation of the economy over the coming years will be associated with increased interest rates, rising labor costs in real terms and budget deficits,” the agency’s report says.

ACRA analysts predict that high utilization of labor capacity and labor resources will continue in the coming years. This, as stated in the report, will limit economic growth on the supply side – the rate of GDP growth will decrease from about 3% to 1-2%. In 2024, the figure will drop to about 1%, in 2025 it will be 1-2%, in 2026 – from 0.6% to 1.8%.

Short-term interest rates, as predicted by ACRA, will decline from 15-16% to 7%, which “can be considered neutral in the medium term.” Household consumption in real terms in 2024 will remain unchanged or decrease slightly, the material says.

The forecast says that the exchange rate at the end of 2023 and the first half of 2024 may reach 85 rubles. for 1$. In the long term, there will be a trend towards a weakening of the exchange rate, the agency believes.

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov November 21 statedthat expected GDP growth by the end of 2023 may exceed 3%. GDP growth in 2024, according to International Monetary Fund estimates, will be 2.2%.

Read more about the forecasts in the Kommersant article. “Overheated GDP of a respectable kind”.

Petr Buzlaev