Achieving the UN’s 2030 climate target will depend on China

In 2023, the volume of renewable energy capacity commissioned around the world amounted to a record 510 gigawatts, according to the IEA “Renewables” report. Despite the active implementation of renewable energy sources in Europe, the United States and India, its forecasts do not allow achieving the goal set by the UN climate conference and suggesting a tripling of renewable energy capacity by 2030. Fulfillment of the obligation will largely depend on China, which in 2023 commissioned as many solar panels as the whole world in 2022—but so far, China’s success in introducing renewable energy sources has been largely ensured by foreign direct investment, the volume of which is now decreases.

The volume of renewable energy capacity launched in 2023 amounted to 510 gigawatts (GW), which is 50% more than in 2022, according to the IEA report on renewable energy “Renewables”. According to the agency, in 2023 the use of renewable energy sources will significantly increase in the USA, EU, India and Brazil. The number of solar panels and wind farms in these countries is expected to more than double in the next five years. In the EU, the accelerated growth in the implementation of renewable energy sources is largely explained by internal “climate” documents, in the USA – by the entry into force of the law to reduce inflation, and in India and Brazil – by the attractiveness of countries for foreign investment.

It is expected that in 2023–2028, global renewable energy capacity will increase to 7,300 GW (by the end of 2022 – approximately 3 thousand GW), and 95% of the increase will be ensured by the expansion of solar and wind generation. It is expected that renewable energy sources will “overtake” coal and become the largest source of electricity by the beginning of 2025.

Thus, the projected pace of implementation of “clean” energy will make it possible to increase the capacity of renewable energy sources by 2.5 times by 2030. At the same time, at the UN climate conference (COP28), a more ambitious goal was set, which involved tripling capacity (see “Kommersant” dated December 14, 2023). According to the IEA, its achievement can be brought closer by eliminating administrative barriers and bureaucratic problems, as well as, for example, speeding up the issuance of permits for the construction of solar power plants. However, even if the majority of developed and developing countries follow these recommendations, the required pace of implementation of renewable energy sources will not be achieved without the active expansion of solar energy in China.

According to IEA estimates, it was China that provided last year’s record growth in added capacity—the country commissioned as many solar panels as the rest of the world in 2022. This is partly due to falling battery prices: their production significantly exceeds demand. The forecast suggests that China could reach its domestic solar and wind targets as early as this year, six years earlier than expected. However, in order for global obligations to be fulfilled, China will have to maintain record high rates of expansion of renewable energy sources even after this. As the IEA reminds, until now, China’s successes in green energy have been ensured, among other things, by foreign direct investment – and their reduction may somewhat worsen the dynamics. Let us recall that as the country’s Ministry of Commerce announced last week, the volume of FDI in China in 2023 decreased by 8% – to 1.13 trillion yuan ($157.1 billion).

Kristina Borovikova