about 1 GW of thermal power plants need to be built in Crimea and Kuban
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The deficit of power capacity in the south-west of the energy system of the South in the next five years may reach 860 MW, taking into account the flow of electricity to new territories, the System Operator calculated. The regulator recommends building up to 338 MW of new capacities in the Crimea, and up to 605 MW in the Krasnodar Territory. New generation projects can be raffled at the competition in early 2024. The cost of construction, according to analysts, will be at least 80 billion rubles. The main challenge for power engineers will be the choice of technology: there are no run-in Russian gas turbines yet, and plants for the production of steam plants are already loaded with ongoing projects.
The “system operator” (SO; power system dispatcher) sees the need to build a new generation in the south of the country. SO recommends building 307–338 MW in Crimea, and 550–605 MW in the Krasnodar Territory, follows from the Schemes and Programs for the Development of Russian Energy Systems (SIPR) project.
New power plants are needed to cover the energy deficit: in 2024, the shortage of power capacity in the southwest of the United Energy System (IPS) of the South may be 219 MW, and in 2029 – already 857 MW, taking into account repair restrictions. Regulators have been publicly discussing the emergence of an energy shortage in the south for the past three years, estimating it at the level of 500 MW (see Kommersant of October 30, 2020).
The total capacity of power plants in the Crimea is 1.4 GW, in the Krasnodar Territory – 2.5 GW. In 2022, electricity consumption in the Krasnodar Territory increased by 3.6%, to 31 billion kWh, in Crimea – by 1.1%, to 8.86 billion. In 2023, demand in the Kuban region may grow by 1.5% , and on the peninsula – by 3.4%.
The energy deficit in the southwest of the IPS of the South, judging by the new S&D, arises due to the connection of new consumers (residential complexes, Russian Railways facilities, greenhouses, etc.), as well as due to the inclusion of new territories in the energy system.
The document notes that the predicted power flow from the Crimea to the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions may be 550 MW per year, and from the Krasnodar Territory to the Crimea – 850 MW (twice more than the forecasts in the SIPR last year). According to SO calculations, taking into account the flow to new territories, the inclusion of all mobile GTPPs (owned by Rosseti), and in the event of a shutdown of one unit of the Balaklavskaya TPP located in Sevastopol (251.5 MW), the energy deficit in the energy system of Crimea and Sevastopol in 2024 will be 243 MW , and by 2029 – 307 MW.
The construction of 900 MW in the south, according to analysts interviewed by Kommersant, could cost at least 80 billion rubles.
New generation will be built through the new generation competitive capacity take-off mechanism (KOM NG). The competition for projects, as they said in the Ministry of Energy, could take place in early 2024. The KOM NG mechanism has already been used, in particular, for the construction of the Saki CHPP in the Crimea (120 MW, KrymTETS) and Udarnaya TPP in Taman (550 MW, Technopromexport – TPE). Construction costs are paid off by payments from industrial consumers of the first (Urals and the European part of the Russian Federation) and second (Siberia) price zones of the wholesale energy market.
The most logical and economically sound technology option for an object of about 500 MW is combined-cycle plants (CCGT), according to a Kommersant source in the expert community. The most optimal solution is to expand existing power plants, if the site allows it, he clarifies. So, TPE, controlled by Rostec, has two new CCGT stations in Crimea, 470 MW each: Balaklava and Tavricheskaya TPP. In Taman, TPE plans to launch the Udarnaya TPP (550 MW) by the end of 2023 on the Russian gas turbine GTD-110M.
The KrymTETS has repeatedly stated its desire to expand the Simferopol CHPP. But new contenders may also appear: Boris Kovalchuk, General Director of Inter RAO, recently spoke of interest in CCM NG in the south, but it all depends on the technical parameters of the competition.
Competitions for KOM NG can be held in two more energy systems, follows from the new SiPR. Thus, in the IPS of the East (in the Amur Region, Khabarovsk and Primorsky Territories) up to 1.48 GW is required, and in the IPS of Siberia (in Irkutsk, Transbaikalia, Buryatia) – up to 1.23 GW. The growth of energy deficit in these energy systems is due, among other things, to the expansion of the Eastern test site.
The key challenge for the implementation of new projects is related to the unclear situation with the supply of Russian-made gas turbine units, says independent analyst Yuri Melnikov. Judging by the example of the gas-fired Novolenskaya TPP (550 MW, Inter RAO, Yakutia), generating companies may prefer steam power plants (SPU), he explains. The fuel consumption at PSU units is 60% higher than at CCGT, but the risks of unreliable operation are much lower. Yury Melnikov predicts the continuation of the trend of choosing PSU technology in Russia.
But for steam power technology, all other things being equal, three times more steam turbine power will be required, the analyst clarifies, which means that suppliers will be overloaded with orders (in addition to existing projects under the program for the modernization of old thermal power plants), which will affect the timing of deliveries, commissioning stations and prices.
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