Some operators suspend the purchase of gondola car fleet

Against the backdrop of a sharp rise in wagon prices and a decrease in operating margins after the increase in the key rate of the Central Bank, some operators are suspending fleet purchases. Prices for standard gondola cars exceeded 5 million rubles, for tanks and mineral wagons – 6 million rubles, experts say, and this despite the decrease in the cost of steel. The reason is the growth of costs in car building, especially for wages, since the main enterprises now lack about 15% of the required staff. At the same time, the fleet on the network has already exceeded 1.3 million units, which is a historical record.

After the Central Bank raised the rate in August to 12%, the average daily lease payment for a gondola car became higher than the average rental rate for existing long-term contracts, follows from the report of the Center for Price Indices (CPI) of Gazprombank. This has made it difficult for operators who are already reluctant to purchase railcars due to high prices to replenish the rolling stock fleet.

One of the large market participants interviewed by Kommersant says that he does not yet see a general excess of leasing rates over rental rates, but admits this “for individual companies.” Another interlocutor of Kommersant, on the contrary, confirms the reduction in the marginality of transportation at continuing high rates.

Roman Shagalov, CCI analyst at Gazprombank, notes that many carriers would like to increase their fleet of gondola cars, but temporarily suspend its replenishment: “Operators do not risk buying new cars at current prices, because the payback period is too long and can reach 15 years.”

Domestic steel prices fell by 20-25% yoy in the first half of the year, but this did not lead to a correction in railcar prices, according to the CCI report, as production costs in the engineering industry rose by 10% in the first half of the year. “According to data from a number of car-building plants, the offer prices for new gondola cars reached 5 million rubles. excluding VAT,” the report says.

At the same time, the fleet on the network reached unprecedented volumes – in July, it follows from the disclosure of information by Russian Railways, it amounted to 1.3 million units, which is a historical record. Over the past five years, the fleet of freight cars has increased by 188,000 units, or 16.9%, Mikhail Glazkov, Deputy Director General of Russian Railways, reported in August. According to him, the network receives three times more new cars than retires by service life, every day 47 thousand cars stand idle on public tracks for more than three days.

According to IEDT, Russian Railways reported that the surplus of the working fleet on the network is 190.3 thousand cars. But the production of rolling stock is growing. In the first half of the year, according to Rosstat, it increased by 5.9% to 28.5 thousand units.

The conclusion that railcar turnover is slowing down because private owners have bought too many railcars is not supported by statistics, says Farid Khusainov, an expert at the HSE Institute for Economics and Regulation of Infrastructure Industries, in his article for Vgudok. In his opinion, the growth of the fleet has become a derivative of the growth in freight turnover, and that, in turn, on the range of transportation. “If the fleet did not grow at the rate we saw, there would be a chronic shortage of wagons,” he notes.

The situation is “completely unprecedented,” says Mikhail Burmistrov, head of Infoline-Analytics: with current rental rates and the level of the key rate, purchases for most types of railcars would be cost-effective at prices for railcars at the end of 2022, but for railcars with delivery in 2024 they grew by more than 40%. The expert clarifies that most car builders are contracted for at least the first half of 2024, and some for the whole year. The price of oil and petrol tanks that are in great demand now is from 6–6.5 million rubles. excluding VAT, and there are no free capacities not only in Russia, but also in Belarus, mineral wagons – from 6 million, standard gondola cars – from 5 million rubles.

Mr. Burmistrov notes that at the same time, labor costs at factories have increased sharply, spurred on by a shortage of personnel: for example, the four largest enterprises now lack more than 5 thousand people, or up to 15% of the required staff. The reason for the shortage is the outflow of personnel to the defense sector, logistics, as well as the effect of mobilization and contract service in the armed forces, he notes. Contract prices, Mr. Burmistrov clarifies, are now “indicative”, since in 2024 they will be indexed for inflation and taking into account the growth in metal prices.

Natalya Skorlygina